National MPs lukewarm on Luxon as leader
Air NZ’s outgoing CEO might have high-flying political ambitions, but some MPs would like to see his wings clipped, writes Thomas Coughlan.
Outgoing Air New Zealand CEO Christopher Luxon won’t have much difficulty finding himself a safe National seat, but becoming leader would be more difficult, according to current National MPs and party sources.
There’s a belief in the party that a talented, high-profile candidate like Luxon would be a shoe-in for a safe seat like Upper Harbour, which was vacated by Deputy Leader Paula Bennett this week.
But becoming leader of the National Party is a different story.
To do that, he’d need a majority of National’s 55 MPs, and many of them aren’t so sure the high-flying exec has gone about his campaign the right way.
Since Luxon announced in June he would be stepping down as head of the national carrier, speculation has been rife as to whether his next move would be into politics.
He didn’t exactly quash these rumours, publicly remarking he was tossing up a future in ‘‘corporate life, politics or a not for profit’’.
The party is fairly divided over what Luxon’s role might be in its future.
Bennett’s Wednesday announcement that she would move to a list placing, opening up Upper Harbour, was interpreted as the party possibly freeing up space in an electorate Luxon would win easily.
But most observers assume someone like Luxon has their eye on being more than just the Member of Parliament for Upper Harbour. They think he has his eye on the party’s leadership, and eventually the top job of prime minister.
Getting there won’t be easy. Before he has a shot at becoming PM, he’ll have to ask his National Party colleagues to make him leader.
Most rate his chances at being handed a safe seat like Upper Harbour. A rule in the National Party constitution means that seats where there are fewer than 200 members have candidates selected directly by the board, making Luxon’s candidacy there a near certainty if he wants it.
The party maintains there are more than 200 members in the seat and the selection will be openly contested, but MPs privately concede that the small number of members in Upper Harbour means the party board will have a stronger influence.
Becoming leader will be much more difficult.
Rumours are rife within the party of Luxon’s posturing.
One MP believes he has quietly been securing prime radio interviews to announce his candidacy. While it’s not obvious the rumour is true, existing MPs are unhappy about the way Luxon has positioned himself.
Another MP, speaking anonymously to allow them to be more frank, said the easiest way to ‘‘p... off’’ National MPs would be to set up radio interviews.
‘‘How is that helpful for anyone?’’ they asked, noting the only person the interviews appeared to be helping would be Luxon himself.
There’s a feeling that Luxon needs to do some hard yards and sacrifice for the party before being considered a serious candidate for the leadership.
Luxon could find himself in an unfortunate position in that he is almost certain to be put at or near the front of the queue for an electorate seat, giving him less time in which to do this all important graft.
He’s not like former PM John Key, whose graceful pivot from the corporate to the political world is the obvious model for Luxon.
Key had the luxury of being relatively unknown in New Zealand, allowing him to work hard without having the spotlight shone on him.
And Key was special.
‘‘John Key worked his a... off to win Helensville [with] no profile,’’ a party source said.
Party members hated ‘‘assumed privileges’’ and could punish a candidate who appeared to waltz into an electorate without earning it.
Others think ambitious MPs will move to block his way.
‘‘While there’s that issue, there’s always hope that someone will say ‘You could do better’.’’
This means Luxon’s biggest problem is likely to come from other ambitious MPs who could close ranks and use their leverage in the party to block his way to the top.
‘‘His worst enemies will be those he is likely to displace,’’ said an MP.
Though Luxon is respected for his business acumen, politicians jealously guard their patch and doubt he has the necessary skills to succeed in politics.
But MPs disagree. They don’t think Luxon gets the difference between business and politics. Politics is a bloodsport, and your constituents often prefer to see you destroy your enemies rather than make alliances with them.
‘‘Business skills don’t always translate,’’ they said.
One joked that business people think ‘‘everything could be solved if we had a meeting and gained consensus and had a national strategy and vision’’.
Business people don’t get that a meeting like this is literally what politics is – and gaining consensus is impossible.
‘‘John Key worked his a... off to win Helensville [with] no profile.’’
Party source