They’re the favourites but . .
The All Blacks are the most likely team to lift the Webb Ellis Cup in Yokohama on November 2. But it’s even more likely that any one of a number of other teams will deny them their third world crown in a row.
Stuff today launches its Rugby World Cup Power Rankings, days out from the start of the tournament.
The Power Rankings use four decades of international rugby results to give each team a rating that reflects their strength relative to the other teams.
Taking the ratings and the fixtures into account, it forecasts each team’s chances of advancing to various stages of the tournament, and of ultimately lifting the Cup.
It also forecasts the outcome of each game. Rather than trying to ‘‘pick’’ a winner, the game forecasts show each team’s probability of winning based on the difference in rating between teams.
After each game is played, ratings will change based on the result and the points margin. New ratings will then be used to update the forecasts for every team and every remaining match.
Leading into the tournament, the Power Rankings give the All Blacks a 34 per cent chance of World Cup victory and a 50 per cent chance of making the final.
The chasing group is led by England and Ireland, who both rate about a 20 per cent chance of lifting the Cup.
The Power Rankings forecasts rate England, Ireland and Wales as a better chance than South Africa, who currently rate only a 9 per cent chance, despite winning the Rugby Championship and performing well in 2019.
That’s partly a function of their difficult route to the semifinals: they face the All Blacks in the group stage and if they lose that (the forecast puts that at a 66 per cent chance) would most likely face a quarterfinal against Ireland. And it’s also to do with how the rating system works.
South Africa’s rating fell steadily between 2015 and 2018. While their good form has boosted them this year, it has not yet been sustained for long enough to lift their rating back level with the likes of Ireland and Wales, who have all had sustained periods of good form since 2015.
It could be that South Africa are the real deal, but the system is not yet convinced. It needs more evidence before it boosts South Africa’s chances.