Vote on euthanasia referendum

David Seymour needs Parliament to endorse a referendum on euthanasia tonight. But a Stuff survey of MPs suggests it will be extremely tight, reports Henry Cooke. What the MPs said: Our best guess based on previous votes:

David Seymour’s four-year quest to legalise euthanasia hangs on a knife edge today as he faces his toughest vote yet – on whether the question should be put to the public.

Stuff asked every MP in Parliament how they would vote on the amendment being put forward this afternoon to take the proposed law to a referendum at the next election.

Fully nine MPs who have been supportive of Seymour’s bill in the past have told Stuff they will be voting against the referendum.

Seymour’s End Of Life Choice Bill, which would legalise assisted dying for the terminally ill, almost certainly needs the referendum amendment to pass to have a chance at passing its third and final reading and becoming law. This is because NZ First has tied its support to the referendum, and losing that party’s nine votes would likely see Seymour’s bill fail.

HOW THE NUMBERS LOOK

Stuff asked each Labour and National MP how they would vote on the referendum earlier this week. (Green and NZ First MPs are being whipped by their parties and so support the measure as a bloc.)

Euthanasia is a conscience issue for these two parties, meaning every MP can vote however they like.

This poll found 53 were definite or likely yes votes – 8 below the 61 needed for the vote to pass. But of the 31 who were either still deciding or did not respond, 11 are likely to vote yes, based on their past support for the bill – bringing the bill’s support to 64, enough to win. But this assumption will not be perfect and Seymour and his team are fighting for every last vote.

Supporters of the bill through its first two readings have generally said they will support the referendum, often begrudgingly so – but not entirely. There is a strong but not perfect relationship between the two, with about 85 per cent of the yes vote at the second reading supporting the referendum.

This is not a perfect relationship because nine MPs who voted yes at second reading have told Stuff they will vote against the referendum – most of them making clear they think the issue is something Parliament should decide.

Seymour has pulled some over from the other side however. Three MPs who voted against the bill at second reading told Stuff they would support the referendum. And some other strong no votes have considered supporting it – as it would give them another chance to fight against the law at the next election.

Labour MPs are much more likely to support the referendum than National MPs, with 21 Labour MPs in open support compared to 13 National MPs.

FRANTIC LOBBYING

Behind the scenes lobbying between the pro-euthanasia and anti-euthanasia camps will continue today over the handful of MPs still considered ‘‘inplay’’ for the referendum vote.

Last night these included Labour MPs Aupito William Sio, Adrian

Rurawhe and Rino Tirikatene, as well as National MPs Paula Bennett and Paul Goldsmith.

The pro-side are supportive of the referendum because it is so crucial to the bill eventually passing, while the anti-side has been a bit less clear about their position.

Those for and against the bill have rough intra-party alliances formed to push their side in a debate that has now been running for years, but has stepped up in this term of Parliament.

On the ‘‘anti’’ side are senior National MPs Maggie Barry and Nick Smith, both of whom were members of the contentious 16-month select committee consideration of the bill. First-term Labour MP Jamie Strange is also a strong advocate against the bill within his party.

On the ‘‘pro’’ side is an alliance of National MPs Chris Bishop and Andrew Falloon, Green MP Chlo¨ e Swarbrick, and Labour MP Ruth Dyson, alongside the bill’s sponsor David Seymour.

One MP who was planning on voting yes to the bill told Stuff yesterday he was under intense pressure from the anti side to change his mind.

The numbers appear to have slightly shifted in the referendum’s favour after Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern made it clear on Monday that she would vote for the referendum if that was needed for the bill to pass, despite her opposition to the referendum itself. This was in fact her original position but conflicting reports from her office had confused some.

WHY THE REFERENDUM IS NEEDED

A large number of MPs supporting the referendum made it clear to Stuff that in a perfect world Parliament would decide on the bill, not the public.

MPs have been puzzling over the issue for years and feel that they understand the issue with more nuance than the public. There is also a widelyshared feeling that referendums should be saved for constitutional issues and difficult social issues left for Parliament – which is elected to represent the public but not blindly follow them.

This is the position of Ardern and several other Labour MPs who have good reason to worry about the pressure that this issue will put on the next election, when a cannabis vote is already being held.

‘‘A referendum shouldn’t be required for us to make our individual decisions,’’ Ardern said on Monday, but ended her answer: ‘‘I will support what will be required to allow the bill to continue or to come into effect.’’

Seymour has made clear to supporters of the bill that this referendum will be needed to keep NZ First on side. It is not quite clear what would happen should the referendum vote lose however.

NZ First leader Winston Peters has refused to say whether his party would vote ‘‘as a block’’ against the bill as a result – likely dooming it – or whether it would allow its MPs to vote freely.

‘‘We don’t go into a battle on the basis to lose,’’ Peters said yesterday.

If all nine NZ First MPs voted against the bill at its third reading next month and no other votes changed hands Seymour would just inch over the line with 61 votes. But if he were to lose a single other MP the ball would fall over.

And as for the referendum itself? Polls suggest it would be a cakewalk for Seymour with very strong and consistent support for euthanasia in the community – recent Colmar Brunton and Horizon polls found it had more than 70 per cent support. But after four years fighting for this bill Seymour will leave absolutely nothing to chance.