Acting together trumps absence
There will be many readers wondering, what’s the point? The leaders of the biggest economies noshows at the East Asia Summit in Bangkok, potentially a significant setback for the hopes of progress in establishing new trade deals and in key issues involving regional security and human rights. Donald Trump has declined once more, instead sending his Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross. And China is represented by its Premier, Li Keqiang.
But, far from being deflated by the side-stepping of Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, it is worth considering whether their absence should make the heart fonder towards such gatherings.
Growing uncertainty about the commitment of the US to multilateralism, the rise of Chinese influence in the region and the posturing of other outside players, including Russia, has left something of a vacuum in the Asia-Pacific.
The East Asia Summit gives countries such as Australia, New Zealand, Japan and others the opportunity to fill that vital space and maximise potential for all, rather than just a few.
Certainly, New Zealand doesn’t need the US to advance the Asean-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade agreement, a pact that would bring together some of the world’s biggest economies. And yesterday it agreed an update of its 2008 free-trade agreement with China.
The withdrawal of the US from the TransPacific Partnership was seen as a death knell for a trade deal. But for the countries that remained involved, including New Zealand, the altered agreement has still been seen as a success, with greater access to markets including Japan, Canada and Mexico.
RCEP is another significant opportunity. Stephen Jacobi, of the NZ International Business Forum, says it’s ‘‘bigger than the Trans-Pacific Partnership’’.
If New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and others can advance the negotiations, particularly in relation to a reluctant India, then the rewards will be substantial for the national and Asia-Pacific economies. Possibly even more importantly, it would be a valuable counterpoint to the developing trade war between China and the US, and the rising drumbeat of protectionism coming from America.
In the absence of Trump and Xi, Ardern, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, India’s Narendra Modi, Japan’s Shinzo Abe and others have the opportunity to share more of the limelight that would otherwise have been dominated by the US president’s peculiar brand of diplomacy. And the posturing of two great powers.
They have the opportunity to demonstrate the power of multilateralism, the benefits of trade – even between ‘‘lesser’’ nations – and the value of working together. That collective effort is even more important given increasing US reluctance towards issues beyond its own borders and the growth of China’s belt and road.
New Zealand recently strengthened its relationship with its Pacific neighbours in response to both. It’s equally important that it play a similar role in the wider Asia-Pacific region and the East Asia Summit must be part of that commitment.
They have the opportunity to demonstrate the power of multilateralism ...