Gun buyback numbers fall short

Police Minister Stuart Nash says there could be fewer guns in the country than experts have calculated.

His comments come as police data shows they could struggle to collect even the lowest estimate of banned guns, under a gun amnesty and buyback scheme, which ends on December 20.

An April ministerial briefing paper revealed that police estimated between 60,000 and 240,000 firearms would be made illegal under gun law reform; in September police suggested that number was 56,000-173,000.

But police have not set any specific operational targets for the gun buyback scheme.

Official figures show that between July 13 and October 29 about 32,659 firearms were collected and more than $62 million had been paid out so far.

When the police data is crunched, it works out at an average of 282.43 banned firearms collected per day.

At the current rate, about 45,188 banned firearms would be collected by the December 20 deadline. In order to meet the initial 60,000 estimate, police would need to collect about 600 firearms a day before the deadline.

A KPMG report that informed the pricing of the buyback scheme estimated the total number of all weapons, both lawful and prohibited, was between 1.2 million and 1.5m and there were about 14,300 military style semiautomatics MSSAs.

It calculated there were 760,000 rifles and 380,000 shotguns in the community but noted there was significant uncertainty around the number and condition of firearms in the community. It warned that despite its best efforts, the report may not capture the full depth and breadth of the complex scheme.

Nash said the number of guns in the community was a great unknown, which was why a firearms register was needed.

‘Maybe it is less than KPMG estimated . . . It was a rough estimate based on some modelling. Maybe KPMG got it wrong, who knows . . . Maybe there are fewer guns in the community than originally anticipated.’’

He suggested that some gun owners may wait until the last week of the buyback.

Nash and the police are adamant the buyback will not be extended and have urged gun owners to hand in their firearms.