Who will the wor
The Baby Boomer generation is under fire. But they’re the ones filling skill shortages – and they won’t be there forever. Catherine Harris reports.
As Baby Boomers enjoy better health and face a longer retirement, they’ve been staying in their jobs longer too.
In fact, New Zealand has one of the highest rates of over-65s still working in the OECD, at 24 per cent – double the percentage in Australia. A third of the workforce is over 55.
In a time of full employment, this hasn’t created much resentment. But as the wealthiest generation, the Boomers’ desire to keep earning may rankle with Gen Xers (aged 40 to 54) and Millennials who feel their time is over.
So what would happen if the Boomers (aged 55 to 73) suddenly decided to observe the traditional ‘‘retirement age’’ and retire?
The impact could be quite severe for certain occupations. Nearly half of all doctors are expected to retire in the next eight years. The average age of farmers is 59, and 45 per cent of teachers are over 55.
Napier maths teacher Jill Gray, 76, has retired four times and keeps getting lured back. Her current job is for six months.
‘‘Retirement is just so lovely,’’ she says. But she’s still teaching because ‘‘I love my subject so much and because there’s just no teachers out there to teach it’’.
‘‘The young ones are just not coming in, or if they’re coming in, they’re not staying. It’s frightening.’’
The Commission for Financial Capability is also worried. Its survey of 500 chief executives found that a third were worried about their older workers retiring, even though 80 per cent had no policy to retain or recruit workers over 50.
Troy Churton, the commission’s ageing workforce spokesman, says it is a myth that older people are robbing younger people of jobs.
He says older workers are creating more work by boosting the tax take and spending what they earn. They contributed $5.5 billion to the tax take in 2016, and spent $20.6b. That’s poised to rise to $94b by 2061.
He would like to see businesses do more to help workers make the transition – reduced hours, more flexibility, or offering retraining or upskilling.
‘‘This concept that you get to 65 and the word ‘retirement’ comes into play – more and more workers don’t think of retirement any more. They just think of a transition into some other type of productivity,’’ Churton says.
That’s not to say that there aren’t some people who can’t wait to retire at 65, he adds.
But there are several types of retirement-age personalities, and some will always be wanting to reposition themselves and remain productive.
Some are even becoming entrepreneurs. ‘‘That’s certainly not keeping people out of the workplace.’’
Shifting gears
On the other side of the ledger, there is the stereotype of Millennials who see Boomers as entitled and believe the world needs a fresh approach.
Economist Shamubeel Eaqub has felt the wrath of Boomers, who feel insulted when he points out that they have the greatest concentration of wealth in a single generation.
He expects their gradual departure from the workforce won’t cause much pain. ‘‘They won’t all be retiring at the same time. There’s this fear that there’s this magical number of 65 when people will leave the workforce or sell their businesses.’’
But the rate of change is so fast, and Boomer values are so counter to the times, that he thinks they are ‘‘singularly unequipped’’ for what’s ahead.
So much for the workers, but what of the selfemployed? A survey by MYOB suggests 42 per cent of Kiwi Boomer business people expect to simply shut their doors rather than pass on or sell their business, raising questions about the loss of intellectual property and capital.
Business brokers told Stuff last year that there was no sign of a flood of Boomer businesses on the market yet, and Eaqub believes that won’t happen.
‘‘If we look forward over the next 20 years, I think the most likely scenarios will be lots of roll-ups, so lots of like businesses pulled together into a larger business.
‘‘That’s the best possible solution for older folk because, if you can get into that market, you’re likely to get a good premium . . .
‘‘For the rest, I think it’s more likely to be a case that they’re not likely to sell for a long time. They will remain part-owners for a long time and slowly transition out. There’s too much money tied up.’’
An uncomfortable truth, says Eaqub, is that younger generations are not in a position to buy a lot of Boomer businesses.
Many do not have homes to secure business loans, and any inheritances they are in line for may be less, due to their parents’ longer lifespans.
Brave new world
While Boomers wield considerable power, Millennials can take comfort in the fact that, numerically, they will soon be impossible to ignore.
The average age in the world is 30 – the oldest it’s ever been – but the population is growing so fast that young people are more numerous, educated and connected than ever.
The workplace of the future is going to be one of endless change, says Frances Valintine, founder of tech education provider Mind Lab.
Increasing automation and retraining are going to be constants. That doesn’t mean
Boomers can’t keep up, she adds.
But they will have to contend with ever-faster computer speeds and more detailed information. Just last month, Google announced a breakthrough in quantum computing that could herald an era of lightning-fast processing speeds. Data analysis will become an everyday skill.
Valintine believes the current frisson over the ‘‘OK, Boomer’’ meme is really just a reflection of the changing environment.
‘‘The reality is, while the Millennials are the biggest part of our workforce, the majority of them do not have their own house, car and a job for life, and most would never aspire to have a job for life.
‘‘And yet among my peers, I have certainly a number who have been with the same company or in the same job for over 30 years.
‘‘Neither is right or wrong, but we do need to have this willingness to understand that we see things through different lenses, because contextualising our world is partially based on what we know and partially on what we’ve experienced.’’