Fiery, dry and diseased future
A newborn today faces a future transformed by climate change, first by lack of food and then extreme weather, researchers say.
As a baby they’ll be affected by rising food prices, as a child, they’ll be the first to suffer from infectious diseases spread by soaring temperatures, and as an teenager the worsening world’s air pollution.
By the time they become adults, extreme weather events will intensify, including heatwaves, longer droughts and wildfires.
OraTaia: NZ Climate & Health Council co-convener Dr Alexandra Macmillan says despite what some people may think, New Zealanders are not exempt.
‘‘Health and wellbeing are dependent on environmental status.’’
Some are already choosing not to have children because they don’t want them to face the consequences of climate change.
Based on research from 35 global institutions, the 2019 The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate report says a newborn today will experience a world more than 4 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial average.
‘‘The life of every child born today will be profoundly affected by climate change.
‘‘Without accelerated intervention, this new era will come to define the health of people at every stage of their lives.’’
Macmillan says climate change is being called the defining issue for health in the 21st century, and New Zealand’s health sector isn’t prepared for the consequences.
‘‘Climate change will affect Ma¯ori and Pacific households and lowincome households the most.
‘‘We need to make sure that we protect them through climate action.’’
Crop failure
As temperatures rise, harvests will shrink – threatening food security and driving up food prices, and children born today will suffer it as soon as they are infants, the report said.
The average global yield potential of maize, winter wheat, soybean, and rice has declined over the past 30 years.
The Ministry for Primary Industries said climate change would affect how much was grown and harvested in New Zealand.
Macmillan says it is well-known New Zealand’s food production must change. ‘‘If we think about our food-production system, we know that our traditions and the way our food system works is driving an epidemic of obesity and diabetes, we also have problems with food security for low income households.
‘‘But also, that same food production is also responsible for nearly half of our greenhouse gas emissions.’’
Disease outbreak
New and emerging infectious diseases would spread faster as temperatures soar.
Changing weather patterns were creating favourable environments for vibrio cholerae bacteria, and in the past 30 years climatically suitable days for vibrio bacteria had doubled, the report said.
Macmillan says the country’s freshwater issues were of particular concern. ‘‘New Zealand has a freshwater crisis . . . we might not think that’s related to climate change, but we have tens of thousands of water-bourne illnesses.
‘‘When the water gets warmer, it makes it easier for them to spread.’’
Air quality
A child born today would breathe toxic air as they move through adolescence and into adulthood, the report said.
Airborne particles from bushfires are especially damaging, said Ivan Hanigan, a data scientist in epidemiology at the University of Sydney.
They impact the respiratory system through their inhalation, affect the cardiovascular system, and even our brains, causing toxicity and systemic inflammation.
‘‘There may even be life threatening sepsis from airborne microbes associated with bushfire and dust events.’’
Extreme weather events
By adulthood, a child born today would be at increased risk of severe floods, prolonged drought and wildfires, according to the report.
‘‘Across the world, an average temperature increase of 1°C from a pre-industrial baseline has already resulted in extreme climatic and environmental changes, with severe storms and floods, prolonged heatwaves and droughts.’’
Since 2001-2004, 152 out of 196 countries experienced an increase in people exposed to wildfires, and a record 220 million more over-65s exposed to heatwaves in 2018 compared with 2000—63 million more than in 2017.
But floods were also problematic for health, causing injury, death, and the spread of disease, the report said.
Mental health
Macmillan says the effects of climate change on mental health are already well-known.
Drought and climate were threatening farming and fisheries’ profits, and those in the industry were experiencing an impact on their mental health, as well as their financial health.
‘‘We know that climate change and anxiety around climate change is already having an impact on young people’s health.’’
The NZ Psychological Society says it is seeing the beginnings of ‘‘a lot of helplessness, a lot of anxiety and some depression’’ brought about by climate change.
A recent study into what young people worry about featured climate change as a top concern.
Health planning needed
New Zealand’s health sector isn’t prepared to deal with the health consequences of climate change, Macmillan says.
‘‘Despite massive amounts of evidence about climate change and health, health is really still missing from climate change policy.’’
The report echoes Macmillan’s statement. It said governments worldwide need to step up.
Just 51 of the 101 tracked countries had developed national health adaptation plans and 70 countries provided climate information services to the health sector, the report said.
‘‘Despite increasing public attention over the past 12 months, the world is yet to see a response from governments which matches the scale of the challenge.’’