Preparing for the big one
New Zealand has at least 500 active fault lines, any one of which could rupture at any time with no warning, causing a quake. Skara Bohny reports.
The geographic makeup of New Zealand has been brought uncomfortably close to home over the past decade. Watching and waiting for earthquakes, and now volcanic eruptions, has become somewhat of a national pastime.
GeoNet, which was established in 2001 and operated in relative obscurity for almost a decade, burst on to the collective consciousness almost overnight after the Christchurch earthquakes of 2010 and 2011, and now more than 200,000 people follow its social media pages for updates on every minor shake from Milford Sound to Whakata¯ ne.
The disasters to which the country is prone have a hefty price tag attached, not only in the incalculable cost of human life and ongoing psychological effects but also in the more mercenary but still difficult-toassess economic sense.
To prepare for and reduce those costs where possible is all we can do. So what are the measures being taken?
Disaster preparation is urged at every level, from individuals packing home kits all the way up to the national level, including the creation of the Alpine Fault Magnitude 8 (AF8) group, which works with South Island Civil Defence Emergency Management (CDEM) groups to prepare for the worst ‘‘scientifically credible’’ scenario: a magnitude 8 quake on the Alpine Fault.
Civil Defence is locally, rather than nationally, co-ordinated, so each region can prepare for and respond to local risks and emergencies with help from other regions where necessary, illustrated by the Nelson Tasman CDEM group taking point on 2019’s Pigeon Valley fire.
However, while many earthquakes are localised, like Kaiko¯ ura and the Canterbury quakes, an Alpine Fault rupture would almost certainly affect the entire South Island and potentially parts of the North.
Michele Pool, acting director of Emergency Management Otago, noted that there are several faults in Otago, any of which could rupture any time with no warning: a situation typical of most places in New Zealand, which has at least 500 active fault lines.
‘‘We’ve got quite a network of fault lines that have been identified and scoped out over years, but the thing with the Alpine Fault is if we’re prepared to respond to an Alpine Fault rupture, then we’re prepared for all the rest as well,’’ Pool says.
‘‘We’ve been able to do a great deal of collaborative work, which means that we’re not just planning in isolation.’’
It’s not just South Island CDEM groups that are preparing, either, because localised earthquakes could strike anywhere.
Hawke’s Bay Civil Defence Emergency Management group manager Ian Macdonald says preparing for earthquakes is part of ‘‘comprehensive emergency management’’.
‘‘Hawke’s Bay is one of New Zealand’s most seismically active regions and as such earthquakes represent one of our most significant risks. We experience many smaller earthquakes each year, and a large earthquake could occur at any time.’’
He says the immediate priority is to protect people and provide for ongoing welfare, but after the immediate dangers are dealt with there are plans in place to move on to long-term