Smooth flight from Fiji to Australia
Right after her weekly press conference today the prime minister will get on her air force plane for two very different trips. Jacinda Ardern is heading to Fiji, her first visit to the country as prime minister and only the second from a Kiwi PM since our relationship with the country broke down over a coup in 2006.
In Fiji there will be kind words, kava and some serious discussion about climate change.
Then she will jet off to Sydney, where in Ardern’s telling there will be no climate change chat at all. Despite the fact Australia is just months on from devastating wild fires and exports enough coal to swallow our total emissions 10 times over, she is not planning on bringing it up.
Ardern’s trip comes as the pressure on her over Winston Peters begins to fade, and will be an opportunity to reset the narrative in election year.
It will also be a chance to strengthen two relationships that could use some strengthening.
Fijian Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama’s commitment to democracy remains pretty precarious, especially when elections that might not go his way approach.
And Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s government continues a policy of deportations that has ‘‘corroded’’ our relationship, in the prime minister’s own language.
Fiji: climate and democracy
Ardern’s trip to Fiji follows on from John Key’s in 2016, the first after the coup in 2006 which saw the relationship between the two countries break down completely.
Bainimarama, who led that coup, remains in power – but has won two elections international observers deemed to be legitimate. He has taken on a role as a kind of climate spokesman for the wider Pacific – which makes sense given Fiji is one of the richer nations in the region – and notably insulted Morrison over Australia’s climate change record last year at the Pacific Islands Forum.
Ardern is keen to highlight the climate change story while not trying to necessarily drag Australia into it.
‘‘I think that the prime minister of Fiji definitely does not need me to make his case to anyone in the Pacific, or in the region, on climate change.
‘‘He makes his view known personally and amplifies that message strongly,’’ Ardern said in pre-trip chat last week.
‘‘The Pacific Islands Forum is a place where we all collectively discuss our different positions, and New Zealand, I think, is well aligned with its Pacific neighbours.’’
Asked whether Australia was well aligned, Ardern demurred and said she did not speak on behalf of other country’s policies.
That global role on climate change has had some drawbacks.
According to Victoria University comparative politics professor Jon Fraenkel, the frequency of Bainimarama’s expensive trips overseas have not always been to the country’s liking. ‘‘He is much criticised in Fiji for how much travelling he does on $3000 a day.’’
Fraenkel said New Zealand was able to play a constructive role in the conflict between smaller Pacific states and Australia over climate policy but in other areas like trade our country can still be seen as part of the big-rich country group with Australia.
Ardern is hopeful about talks on the Pacer Plus trade deal with Pacific states and Australia that has been delayed for years.
Fraenkel was not very bullish on much happening here, however: ‘‘It has been over a decade now they have been talking about Pacer Plus and nothing ever seems to happen.
‘‘These negotiations were originally triggered by discussions with the European Union, and the EU never got that comprehensive trade agreement with all those states.’’
Ardern is also keen to talk about women in Parliament, which Fiji has 10 of as the result of the 2018 election. That may seem low but this is a Parliament of 51 people – it is in fact one of the highest rates in the Pacific.
But Fraenkel cautioned that Bainimarama’s commitment to democracy was not seriously challenged over the past two elections, which he won after doing a lot of work to keep opposition parties weak.
‘‘I do not think the 2014 and 2018 elections were rigged; what did happen was they were highly unfair,’’ Fraenkel said.
Owing to the way his party played on Fiji Indian insecurities at the last election, Bainimarama lost support among indigenous Fijians, which could lead to a much closer election in 2022 – or even a loss for Bainimarama, which Fraenkel said could threaten trouble.
‘‘What I am worried about is 2022. Because that is the one they might lose. If they lost the election, there would be a coup very quickly.’’
Ardern said that the upcoming election would likely come up in her meeting with Bainimarama, which makes sense given the amount of support Australia and New Zealand give the office which administers them. She is also meeting with the leader of the opposition.
Australia: deportations and not much else
Despite coming directly from Fiji, Ardern made clear in pre-trip chat with media she did not see climate change as a big focus for her Australia trip.
What would come up – as it does in basically every conversation with Morrison – is Australia’s policy of deporting New Zealand citizens who commit crimes in Australia even when they have almost no links to this country, something Ardern has described as ‘‘corrosive’’ to the relationship.
‘‘I think friends speak frankly to each other, that is the nature of our relationship,’’ Ardern said.
‘‘Australia is well within their rights to do what they have been doing. They are not acting outside of their rights. What we have been pointing out is that it is not in keeping with the spirit of our friendship.’’
It seems exceedingly unlikely that this conversation will change Morrison’s mind, as the deportation policy is fairly popular in Australia and New Zealand has no plans for retaliatory moves.
Ardern will also talk about what has drawn Australia and New Zealand closer together in the past couple of years: crisis and tragedy.
‘‘Things like Whakaari-White Island, the bushfires, and even our response to coronavirus, has meant that we have had cause to have more frequent contact with one another. We have got a really excellent working relationship, and that is only, I think, been to the benefit of both countries,’’ Ardern said.
‘‘We are countries that lean on one another in times of need.’’