Plan B draws swift criticism

Tens of thousands of lives could be lost if New Zealand was to loosen strict Covid-19 restrictions too early, University of Otago public health specialist Professor Nick Wilson warns.

Horror scenes of mass graves being dug in New York could also become a reality here if the virus took hold, he added.

Epidemiologist Dr Ayesha Verrall believed there was a real risk of outbreaks if we moved out of lockdown prematurely, potentially undermining all the gains the country has made while at alert level four – restrictions that have been in place for the past three weeks.

The dire predictions come in response to the controversial claim made by a breakaway group of public health experts who believe a return to near-normal life should begin in a fortnight.

The alternative plan, developed by University of Auckland senior lecturer of epidemiology Simon Thornley, was underpinned by the group’s belief that eradication of the virus was not necessary and was ‘‘likely not achievable’’.

Dubbed Plan B, the alternative plan was the equivalent of returning to alert level two, enabling many to return to work and schools to reopen.

This was at odds with the ‘‘stay the course’’ mentality advocated by the Government, which supported a staged step-down in alert levels.

Wilson and some of his colleagues advocated an elimination strategy that has been central to the Government’s tough approach to the pandemic.

But he has criticised the alternative plan, which appeared to be a mitigation strategy similar to the one adopted by Sweden.

That country has recorded 899 deaths and more than 10,000 confirmed cases in a population of about 10 million.

The strategy allowed the virus to spread slowly without overwhelming the health system while moving towards herd immunity.

Verrall believed that strategy was risky. ‘‘Herd immunity, where you get the outbreak in the hope that population gets immunity, is based on the assumption we can get herd immunity – and we just don’t know.’’

Professor Nick Wilson University of Otago

Instead, she said, a strong system of contract tracing and surveillance would provide the ideal scenario to move out of lockdown.

Wilson has called on Thornley’s group to publish modelling and evidence to justify its claims.

‘‘In a democracy, we need robust debate but academics should have a bit of substance behind their argument. Every public health doctor is concerned about the impact on society [from] the lockdown,’’ he said.

‘‘But if we do eliminate it quickly, we can open up the economy much earlier than other countries and use border controls as a means of keeping it out. As an island nation, we have much better options if we keep that quarantine until we have a vaccine.’’

Responding to the alternative plan, a Government spokesman said the prime minister had been clear that the best way to protect Kiwis’ health and the economy was to stamp out the virus.

‘‘The early success of the lockdown should not be used as a reason to move too quickly.’’

A decision on whether the country would remain at alert level four was due on April 20.

‘‘As an island nation, we have much better options if we keep that quarantine until we have a vaccine.’’