A few sunbeams among the dark clouds ahead
It’s true, then. Every cloud really does have a silver lining. The coronavirus pandemic has plunged the world into economic and social turmoil on a scale not seen since World War II. We have no idea how long it will last or what the long-term repercussions might be.
But look on the bright side. For several weeks we have enjoyed a respite from the shrill scaremongering and moralising of the neo-Marxist Left.
Moral panics over hate speech, gender identity, climate change, white supremacy and Islamophobia have been displaced from the headlines. The world’s news media have found more pressing issues to concern themselves with. It’s amazing what an urgent existential crisis can do.
This is not intended to sound flippant, or to diminish the heartbreak experienced by bereaved families. But it does underscore the vast difference between the ideological fixations of self-absorbed activists and the genuine life-and-death situation society is now grappling with.
Another blessing is that the leftist doctrine of identity politics, which sees society as irrevocably divided between oppressors and oppressed, has suffered a sharp setback. Identity politics seeks to magnify our differences, especially those relating to race, gender, class, sexual identity and religion (and increasingly, age too). But in the face of Covid19, New Zealanders have tapped into a deep reserve of solidarity and shared purpose.
Beyond those consequences, no-one knows quite how the Covid-19 crisis will play out. But a wide range of possibilities present themselves.
One likelihood is that the wave of economic liberalisation and deregulation which swept the Western World under the banners of Thatcherism and Reaganomics in the 1980s will be at least partially rolled back. Just as the Great Depression led to the election of big-spending, interventionist governments under Franklin Delano Roosevelt in the United States and Michael Joseph Savage here, so the coronavirus scare has legitimised state involvement in the New Zealand economy on a scale not seen since Robert Muldoon.
How far this will extend remains to be seen, but it’s clear that a fundamental reset is under way. Expect higher taxes, greater state control and more power in the hands of politicians and bureaucrats.
Globalisation, a defining trend of the past few decades, has taken a massive hit too. Not surprisingly, countries have lowered the shutters.
The strains are nowhere more apparent than in the European Union, which is showing signs of fracturing as bickering member states turn against each other. Founded in idealism in the aftermath of the 1939-45 war, the EU is discovering that noble intentions go only so far.
Domestically, the crisis will go a long way toward restoring public respect and even affection for farmers, who have been unfairly disparaged in recent years for their supposed contribution to global warming and environmental degradation. Expect the rural sector to regain its former status as the engine-room of the economy, a role usurped in recent years by tourism.
Politically, the crisis has been good for Labour. Confronted with an immense challenge that no-one saw coming, Jacinda Ardern and her team have generally responded calmly and decisively. But they must still be subjected to rigorous critical scrutiny, contrary to a letter in my local paper which seemed to suggest that it’s unpatriotic to question government decisions. There’s nothing like a national emergency to bring out the authoritarian streak in some citizens.
There’s nothing like a national emergency to bring out the authoritarian streak in some citizens.
Considering the hazards strewn in its path, the Government has done well to make only two serious misjudgments. The first was the omission of magazines and community newspapers from its list of essential industries, which gave Bauer Media the excuse it needed to exit the New Zealand market, leaving magazine subscribers quite literally grieving.
The other was the shameful connivance of the police, presumably with Government approval, in condoning unlawful highway checkpoints manned by iwi activists in the Far North and on the East Cape. So much for the rule of law. Hone Harawira, no doubt delighted at being allowed to get away with it, will treat it as a precedent.
The crisis has been good for Winston Peters too, allowing him to masquerade as statesmanlike in his role as minister of foreign affairs. Will this be enough to save his disreputable party after a run of damning disclosures? The voters will decide.
But the hardest part is still to come as the Government attempts the extraordinarily difficult balancing act of rekindling the economy without risking a resurgence of the virus. The possibility remains that the cure could be more damaging than the disease.