The leadership quandary facing the Nats
Simon Bridges is not a man who stays down for long. After another bruising week as leader of the Opposition he was all smiles on a Friday Zoom call with Canterbury businesses, setting out his case against extending the Government’s coronavirus lockdown with much more skill than he had earlier in the week.
The first time he laid out the case was a disaster. In a Facebook post delivered before the prime minister had finished her press conference on Monday, Bridges lambasted the Government for extending the lockdown in the kind of terms familiar to anyone who has read an Opposition press release.
But this was not a press release, it was a post for a general audience, and that general audience hated it. The post went viral in hours as thousands of people ripped Bridges out for his stance in the comments, many claiming to be long-time National voters disgusted by his negativity at a time of crisis.
A bit of social media negativity is par for the course in politics, but this snowballed into something more as the mainstream media picked up on it the next day. By Wednesday a rumour of a coup was swirling, which ended up getting to the point where the supposed leaders of this putsch – Paula Bennett and Mark Mitchell – issued tweets in support of Bridges.
This coup rumour was probably just that: a rumour. National would send all the wrong signals if it got rid of Bridges right now.
It would look like a party more focused on its own political fortunes than the crisis the country is in. And that would rebound on whoever had to get blood on their hands to do it.
But you’d also be wrong to say the National caucus was happy right now, or that Bridges’ job is 100 per cent safe until the election.
The Facebook post raised eyebrows. It felt for some like a continuation of a pattern with Bridges: decent work done by other Opposition MPs tainted by bad timing and bad tone. Like the leader was himself hurting the party, rather than helping it.
Internal party polling has not been shared with the wider caucus in a while. But the supposed leaked polling that has them well down into the 30s is not to be discounted.
Colmar Brunton’s polling suggests that almost nine in 10 Kiwis support the Government’s moves on coronavirus.
People turn to patriotism over politics in a crisis like this. Bridges’ messaging has often been focused on how much better Australia is doing than us, with its lighter lockdown but similar health results.
This may be a perfectly good argument in a few more weeks, but it feels premature right now. Kiwis are rightly proud of completely disrupting their lives to save tens of thousands of lives, and don’t take kindly to being told it all could have been way easier if we had just been a bit more relaxed like the Australians.
For both Bridges and the wider National Party, what makes sense right now is a bit of waiting. After all, there are still months until the election. Jacinda Ardern didn’t take over until six weeks before the last one.
While this is still a health story it plays well for Labour, which many in the public trust more with things like health and education. When it becomes an economic story things look up for National – and the Budget is just three weeks away.
That Budget will have some nasty projections from Treasury, although they aren’t likely to surprise anyone. It will also contain the Government’s plan for what to do when the 12-week wage subsidy – currently supporting close to half the workforce – expires. If the public like what they see then it will probably be curtains for National anyway; if they don’t, then things get more interesting.
Around this time public polling will probably return, and this is where things could either get better for Bridges or much dicier.
The problem for Bridges isn’t so much looking like he might lose the election. As much as many in the National Party see themselves as a temporarily embarrassed government-in-exile, there is widespread acceptance that beating first-term governments is tricky, but not impossible.
No, the problem is if MPs start thinking about self-preservation. Not ‘‘Will I be a minister after the election?’’ but ‘‘Will I be in
Parliament after the election?’’. A few public polls in the mid-thirties would put the fear of god into the many talented MPs who aren’t in safe seats and might miss out on those kinds of numbers – people like Chris Bishop and Nicola Willis. (Even with relatively high list placings these MPs could still lose their place in Parliament if enough people below them on the list win their electorate seats – and National still has a lot of safe seats.)
If things turn to selfpreservation, then getting someone in to save the furniture becomes much more appealing.
The National Party brand has seemingly remained very strong throughout this entire term, while Bridges has never really got off the ground.
That makes the idea of replacing him and coasting on a lack of baggage (Todd Muller) or some good name recognition (Judith Collins), paired with the strong party brand, that much more appealing.
Thankfully for Bridges, none of those possible contenders for his throne are likely to lose their place in Parliament. Even in a really bad election Collins will win Papakura, and Muller will win Bay of Plenty. Hence waiting makes more sense for them, no matter how worried they may be about John Key’s great friend Chris Luxon.
Sticking it out has worked for Bridges before. He stuck it out after his closest political ally accused him of fraud, released embarrassing tapes of him, and did all he could to destroy his entire leadership. He stuck it out after Ardern enjoyed a surge of popularity after March 15.
And until some of those bad polls get made public, he can probably stick out this storm too.
The problem for Bridges is if MPs start thinking about selfpreservation.