The smoke clears in pot plans

In a parallel world where Covid-19 had never happened and people stared at you quizzically if you talked about lockdowns and alert levels, the political year would have looked very different. The political classes expected to spend 2020 thinking about referendums. But until yesterday, the vast majority would have been forgiven for forgetting that, in a little over four months, New Zealand might get to make cannabis legal.

Along with euthanasia, voters will say yes or no to cannabis legalisation at the general election that is still set for September. A minor flurry of debate on the issue, not all of which was well-informed, withered by March, when Covid-19 dominated every conversation.

Yesterday’s release of the Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill, which had previously appeared in draft form, tells New Zealanders what they are voting for or against. It is a cautious regime. Far from turning the country into a pot-smoker’s paradise, the bill will introduce regulations that are tougher than those for alcohol and tobacco.

That is as it should be. Cannabis unquestionably has medicinal benefits, but there can be deleterious effects, especially on younger people, as has been demonstrated by the University of Otago’s world-famous Dunedin Multidisciplinary Study. It found IQ decline in those who smoked the drug regularly before the age of 18.

Under the proposed law, cannabis would be available only to those over 20. Items designed to appeal to teenagers will be banned, and people selling to teenagers could be looking at four years in prison.

Sales would be limited to licensed cannabis shops, not bottle stores or dairies. And smoking in public is deterred by fines of up to $500. Use would be limited to private homes and licensed premises. Strength and quantities would also be strictly controlled.

The proposed law appears to be an impressive balancing act between an informed public health approach and legal regulation. Tax and excise from the sale of cannabis, estimated at around $240 million, would help to fund health and education programmes.

If we are to have a cannabis market – and we have to accept that we do, and probably always will – then surely it is preferable to have such a market regulated, controlled and of course taxed. Currently, according to the New Zealand Drug Foundation, nearly 600,000 New Zealanders access cannabis from ‘‘an uncontrolled, illicit market’’.

The hope of legalisation campaigners is that this won’t create a new market, but will put controls on an existing one. Some will see that as wishful thinking and expect that ease of access would increase use. Statistics from Canada found that, in the first three months after legalisation in 2018, cannabis use increased in one group only: men aged from 45 to 64. Half of new users were over 45.

In Canada and elsewhere, the chief concern is whether adolescent use has been affected by legalisation. This has been hard to gauge, as cannabis use among young people was already declining. There is a similar story in New Zealand, where Otago University researchers have found that teenage use has been in decline, along with teenage drinking, smoking and sexual activity. The kids are better behaved than their peers were in the 1990s.

In other words, it’s difficult to tell if enforced age restrictions will change teenage use, if it was already falling off. But if the spectre of teenage drug consumption is removed from the equation, cannabis legalisation starts to look more palatable than it might have otherwise.

The proposed law appears to be an impressive balancing act.