Humble pioneer of climate science
‘‘We all expected the climate to warm as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gases ... but I knew it would take a lot of time to be generally accepted.’’
Cclimate scientist b October 8, 1949 d April 22, 2020
limate scientists have a deserved reputation for their quiet, studious demeanours. But there was one afternoon a couple of years ago when a group of them gathered to listen to one of their own take on climate change sceptics during a live radio talkback show that, when it was over, had them breaking into loud applause and appreciative cheering.
Dr Brett Mullan was at the microphone, gracefully debunking each myth that came his way. As one of his colleagues recalled: ‘‘For an hour he calmly and wisely knocked every conspiracy theory out of the park without missing a beat.’’
It’s fair to assume the callers didn’t quite realise they were talking to one of New Zealand’s foremost climate scientists – a man whose pioneering work on climate change modelling and projections has formed the basis for continuing research and planning guidelines to help the country to adapt to climate change.
Brett Mullan died last week, aged 70, after a long battle with cancer. He had worked at the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) in Wellington for more than 25 years, where he was revered in equal parts for his brilliance, his collegial attitude, mentoring, humour and humility. He was also a great science communicator.
Born to Betty and Tony Mullan, Brett was the eldest of four boys who grew up in a house that backed on to Mt Eden, Auckland, which quickly became an extended playground for the brothers.
Brett was always very humble about his ability and his achievements. His brainpower was first recognised as a 16-year-old pupil at Auckland Grammar School, where he was one of the top students. In 1965 a newspaper article, cut out and kept by his proud parents, recorded his gaining the highest marks in New Zealand for School Certificate. His top mark was 98 for mathematics.
From Auckland Grammar it was on to the University of Auckland, where he continued to excel in maths and sciences, graduating with a BSc (Hons, 1st Class) in physics, specialising in nuclear physics.
However, realising that the only way to progress this discipline further would require a move overseas or a life of academia – neither of which appealed – he took up an offer to become a weather forecast trainee at the MetService and moved to Wellington.
One of his brothers recalls how, after being in Wellington for a while, Brett realised he needed transport to get around the city. Knowing his brothers all owned motorcycles, he flew back to Auckland, bought one of his brother’s bikes and rode it back to Wellington, having limited riding experience and possibly not even a licence.
It was while at MetService that he met the woman who would become his wife,
Laura. After a while they went their separate ways – Laura back to her home of Fiji and later to Australia, and Brett to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in Boston.
Here he studied for his PhD under famed US mathematician Edward Lorenz, best known as the founder of modern chaos theory, which states that, within the apparent randomness of chaotic complex systems, there are underlying patterns and other similarities.
It was at MIT in the 1970s that Brett became more interested in the effects of climate change.
‘‘The idea of global warming wasn’t really a big issue at the time. We all expected the climate to warm as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gases, that was a given, but I knew it would take a lot of time to be generally accepted. I hoped to still be an active scientist when that happened,’’ he told an interviewer in 2018.
Throughout his PhD Brett and Laura stayed in touch and, when he returned to New Zealand, she moved from Australia and they married in the early 1980s, going on to have two sons, Scott and James.
He resumed working at MetService, where he was much respected. A trainee forecaster at the time recalls Brett worked in the research group on the third floor. ‘‘That was where the big brains were. They all used to traipse down to the tearoom on level 2 at 10am and 3pm and sit in a huddle. I was a bit scared of them and their intellectual prowess, to be honest.’’
In 1992 a science restructure saw the establishment of Crown research institutes and Brett and his science became part of Niwa.
For much of his career he studied climate dynamics and long-term temperature series – he attended the first assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 1990 – something he described as ‘‘a very small affair compared to now’’ and something he was proud to have been involved with since its inception.
He was one of the key people involved in forming Niwa’s climate outlooks and was meticulous in his maintenance, calculations and care of the Seven Station Series, New Zealand’s long-running temperature record derived from seven locations throughout New Zealand.
Amid the seminal papers he authored, his development of relationships with climate variability has been a basis for seasonal climate predictions for New Zealand that started in the 1990s.
Last year, when he was awarded life membership of the New Zealand Meteorological Society, it was acknowledged that he had been at the forefront of the development of climate change scenarios for New Zealand – leading two major reports for the Ministry for the Environment in 2008 and 2016 that are widely used as the basis for climate change adaptation and mitigation planning in New Zealand.
Brett battled climate change sceptics on and off throughout his career but for a while it became almost a full-time occupation. In 2010 a judicial review was sought in the High Court by the Climate Science Education Trust relating to the analysis of long-term temperature trends shown in the Seven Station Series. The trust challenged the science behind the series, and Brett prepared rebuttal after rebuttal.
Later he recalled the assault on the science resulting in more than 100 parliamentary questions, all of which required detailed answers. ‘‘It basically dominated my life at that stage for quite a while.
‘‘Eventually we insisted the trust prepare affidavits and set a court date. Niwa won that judicial review hands down. That still didn’t satisfy the trust, and they took us to the Court of Appeal. We won even more convincingly – the case was tossed out the first morning.’’
Niwa chief executive John Morgan told staff last week that win was largely due to Brett’s unflappable character and precise scientific evidence.
Over the past week his colleagues have also paid tribute to a man who could quickly get to the essence of a scientific problem and tease it out with skilful analysis. But they also were just as quick to mention his willingness to help, his modesty and his kind, gentle manner.
Aside from scientific challenges, Brett was a lifelong chess enthusiast but, with characteristic humility, always said he never really played enough to ‘‘become better than a good B-grade or a poor A-grade player’’.
He also loved science fiction, gardening and puzzles – passions all passed on to his sons. Laura died unexpectedly in 2000, leaving Brett to bring up Scott and James on his own.
Despite his many accomplishments and awards, there is one thing he never mastered. According to James, every time he cooked rice he would burn it.
‘‘Clearly he was extremely intelligent, so I always questioned him about why this kept happening. He always justified it by saying ‘You can’t cook rice if you don’t burn it to the bottom of the pot,’ as if it was an impossibility!’’
A service for Brett is to be held after current restrictions ease. – By Susan
Pepperell
Contact Us
Do you know someone who deserves a Life Story? Email obituaries@dompost.co.nz