Trump doesn’t have the numbers to win again
The president knows he’s in trouble on the crucial electoral college votes, writes Ernie Barrington.
Popular opinion has it that Donald Trump will be re-elected in November. But is that likely? Currently, the president is disapproved of by approximately 57 per cent of Americans, and his approval rating has seldom been above 43 per cent. He got a small boost in the early part of the Covid-19 crisis, but bumbling responses and misrepresentations reminiscent of the worst aspects of George Orwell’s Ministry of Truth caused most of it to disappear pretty quickly.
The choice for Americans in November is going to be between two older nominees, one of whom is the unpopular incumbent and the other a former vice-president with a lifetime of experience in Congress. Both men have been accused of sexual impropriety: Trump by at least 20 women and Joe Biden one.
But winning the presidency is not just about general popularity. If it was, Hillary Clinton would be president, as she won the popular vote in 2016 by almost three million votes. Obtaining the presidency is about winning 270 electoral college votes, and that’s where Trump is in serious trouble, and he knows it.
Six months is a long time in politics but, if an election was held now, Biden would win 319 electoral college votes to 204 for Trump. Fifteen states are tied. The Democrats would reverse the losses of 2016, and pick up Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Some of the polls are within the margin of error, but the general trends are not good for Trump. Even Republican Texas shows weakness for the incumbent. In 2016, Trump won Texas by 10 per cent.
In this pandemic era, there is a move to make postal voting more available. Making it easier to vote is said to favour Democrats. In 2016, turnout was 55.7 per cent, with many millions not bothering to vote. If voting is made easier, it’s possible that Biden will be the beneficiary.
One thing is very clear: ‘‘Make America Great Again’’ Trump supporters are loyal, with the Mueller report and impeachment hearings failing to affect his poll numbers. ‘‘Trumpers’’ won’t be persuaded by Biden’s policy positions. The Democrats will win when they convince their own supporters to go out and vote, or post their choice.
Interviews with voters in a number of states point to some of the reasons for opposition to the current administration: ‘‘We want the bad man gone’’. ‘‘We want sanity in Washington’’, ‘‘We want normalcy again’’. There are also a number of Republicans who are ‘‘Never Trumpers’’, some of whom are already running anti-Trump advertisements.
Other factors that will have a big effect on the election will be the state of the economy and unemployment. In February, unemployment was 3.5 per cent, but it has currently worsened to almost 15 per cent, rivalling the Great Depression of the 1930s, when it was nearly 25 per cent.
In April alone, 20.5 million jobs were lost in the US. Presidents do not get reelected with those kinds of statistics. Trump will argue that it’s not his fault, but his administration’s tardy response to the pandemic and the economic fallout will be judged negatively.
The Russians will certainly try to undermine the election again, but this time the threat is well known and, in any case, the margin between the contenders will be bigger. The 2016 election was extremely close, with Trump winning three states very narrowly: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
In 2020, Biden is likely to win all of these states, and with them the presidency.
Ernie Barrington was formerly on the teaching staff at the University of Auckland.