Winston, Todd here – it’s time we had a chat

Afew years ago, I had the pleasure of interviewing Jim Bolger about his time in politics. One thing I was particularly interested in was his relationship with Winston Peters. How did the National leader, who dismissed Winston from his Cabinet in 1991 for criticising the party’s economic policy, mend the acrimonious relationship so that the two men could successfully form a coalition government in 1996?

Bolger can be blunt. ‘‘Simple,’’ he boomed. ‘‘I picked up the phone and said, ‘Winston, it’s Jim. We should talk.’ ’’

And talk they did. With the help of special Cabinet adviser Johnnie Walker, the two got on famously. It was only when Jenny Shipley pulled off a coup against Bolger, not unlike last week’s one, that the National-NZ First relationship deteriorated.

It also deteriorated with Labour in 2002, though NZ First was able to work with Labour on confidence and supply in 2005. But in 2008, John Key was having none of Winston. Key played the MMP game well and, though he ruled out working with NZ First, he developed a good relationship with the Ma¯ ori Party when he didn’t have to, which served him well, even if it led to the eventual demise of the Ma¯ ori Party.

I always considered Key’s attitude to NZ First cavalier, but Key was a risk-taker and this one paid off. But his legacy was that, even though National scored the most votes in 2017, Winston went with Labour and, more importantly, the Greens, whom he had refused to deal with previously.

Simon Bridges, when his party was polling in the 40s, also ruled out forming a coalition with Winston. The logic seemed to be that such a move would encourage wavering voters to stick with National, and they would govern alone. Meanwhile, NZ First would drop below 5 per cent and never be heard of again. People have been predicting NZ First’s demise since 1993, yet it has never happened.

One of the strange by-products of MMP has been the acrimony between parties who are most similar. During the 1990s, Labour and the Alliance weren’t talking until Jim Anderton and Helen

Clark finally declared a truce. Next thing you know they were in government together in 1999.

National and Labour are essentially orthodox centrist parties with very similar attitudes to taxation and immigration. But suggest this to either party and they will strenuously deny it.

Of course, there is much to criticise about NZ First, but is the party as bad as many National supporters and MPs make out? It stands to the Right of Labour on most issues – a natural fit for National. Even better, it has a large Ma¯ ori base and a largely conservative following.

But many in National would rather fantasise about a coalition with the Greens. Yes, James Shaw and Todd Muller-rhymes-with sculler worked well on the Zero Carbon Bill, but Shaw virtually ruled out any deal as soon as Muller won.

If present polls are to be believed, Labour and the Greens may have the numbers to govern alone. Many supporters would love a coalition that didn’t have NZ First putting on the brakes.

Such a scenario would see NZ First and National thrust together in Opposition, so having a good relationship beforehand might be an idea.

So, is an improvement in National’s relationship with NZ First on the cards now that Muller is in charge? It could hardly be worse than under Simon Bridges, who also inherited the bad blood of the leaking of Winston’s superannuation details.

I suspect most National MPs aren’t looking for Muller to represent a massive lurch back to the centre, but more a massive lurch back to the high 40s in the polls.

But now Paula Bennett is out of the picture, Peters may be prepared to move on. Who knows, a National/NZ First coalition come September could even be a possibility. Yes, there would be tensions, but not insurmountable ones. If such a coalition spent up large in the regions, Muller could blame it on Winston the same way Jacinda Ardern blames Winston for vetoing her progressive policies.

Commentators are saying that the election of Muller-rhymes-with-sculler is a move to the centre, but I’m not so sure. Yes, a lot of urban liberals support Muller, but many of them are tinder-dry on economic issues. Yes, centrist Bolger endorsed his former employee, but that was more to do with Muller’s leadership ability. When things get as bad as 29 per cent, Left-Right ideology tends to fly out the window.

That’s why, when Andrew Little abdicated the Labour leadership to Ardern – who stands on the party’s centre or even the right – no-one minded once those poll numbers climbed. I suspect most National MPs aren’t looking for Muller to represent a massive lurch back to the centre, but more a massive lurch back to the high 40s in the polls.

But in the meantime, if I was Todd Muller, I would emulate my former boss Jim Bolger. I would call in some single malt Cabinet advisers, pick up the phone and say, ‘‘Winston, it’s Todd here. We should talk.’’