NZ may be lost in bubble, business group says

only spend about 50 cents overseas,’’ Stephens said. ‘‘On net we will be losing if we have no international tourism industry but we won’t be losing as much as the worth of the industry.’’

Tourism workers would have to be redeployed to other industries and the next best way to earn foreign exchange and add value around the world would have to be found. ‘‘I don’t know what that would be but it would not be as lucrative as tourism otherwise we would be doing it already,’’ he said. Not opening up the borders also meant worse job-matching, the meeting between the best employee and employer.

‘‘The longer the borders stay closed, the less able New Zealand firms are to employ a specialist from overseas or employ the right person from overseas.

‘‘Instead, they are stuck looking within the New Zealand labour market and they may not find such an ideal person, and that will reduce the efficiency of firms operating in New Zealand.

‘‘On the other side of the coin, New Zealanders will be unable effectively to go overseas and build their skills.’’

No business travel meant there was less spread of ideas around the world, which would impede the ability to strike deals, get sales, upskill, or get a great idea from overseas and bring it home.

‘‘If we cut ourselves off, we are stuck in a smaller pool of ideas and productivity enhancements,’’ Stephens said.

On the other hand, the ability to operate nearly normally was a really valuable asset to New Zealand. ‘‘So if we opened the border earlier ... we would imperil the smooth functioning of a really large chunk of the economy.’’