Govt warned of border strain
With more people entering our borders infected with highly contagious new strains of coronavirus, epidemiologists warn a community outbreak is inevitable without more stringent restrictions.
Australia halved the number of returnees it is allowing through its borders in early January amid mounting concern over the more contagious variants of Covid-19.
Here, the Government is resisting calls to restrict further the number of returnees, citing international obligations. It has extended pre-departure testing to all passengers except those from Australia, Antarctica and most Pacific Islands, and added another test on arrival.
But experts fear this will not be enough to contain the new strain. The number of arrivals in New Zealand is more than five times higher than those arriving in Queensland, which has a similar population, University of Melbourne epidemiologist Tony Blakely says.
‘‘Obviously both countries have done really well but more and more infected people are coming into quarantine. It’s simple maths that the more infected people entering the country, the higher the risk of an outbreak. If you halve the number of people entering the country, you halve your risk. It’s the most obvious thing to do.
‘‘It’s tough, especially for people who have tickets booked, but it is a global pandemic.’’
Epidemiologist Michael Baker says a pre-departure test is not enough, as people could get infected in the three days after taking the test or during their travels.
Suspending or greatly reducing travel from most countries outside of Australia, the Pacific Islands and some Asian countries is an obvious fix while, in the longer-term, authorities could make vaccination a condition of travel to New Zealand, he says.
‘‘The risk is too high. It is a massive health and economic cost to New Zealand if we get an outbreak. We have to act to reduce that risk.’’
An alternative to reducing arrivals would be to increase controls on people pre-departure, he says. Travellers could be made to check into an airport hotel five to seven days before their trip and get a couple of Covid-19 tests in that time.
Covid-19 Recovery Minister Chris Hipkins says authorities have to balance managing health risks with the rights of citizens to return home under international law.
‘‘Our border is being monitored extremely closely to protect New Zealand’s community, and every day we’re looking to see how we can make any risk around that as small as possible.’’
Australia’s Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, took a different approach on January 8, when he announced most states would halve their caps on international arrivals.
Until February 15, entry into New South Wales is capped at 1505 arrivals each week, Western Australia at 512 weekly arrivals and Queensland at 500.
Victoria was already operating at less than 50 per cent capacity, and there would be no change in South Australia and other smaller states where numbers were low, Morrison said as he announced the restrictions.
International lawyers have criticised Australia’s coronavirus border regime.
A leading human rights lawyer based in London, Geoffrey Robertson QC, told the Sydney Morning Herald that caps on airport arrivals breached the human rights of tens of thousands of Australian expats stranded overseas.
The policy was in breach of a key United Nations treaty that enshrined a person’s right to return home, he said.
The International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights states no-one should be ‘‘arbitrarily deprived of the right to enter his own country’’.
The treaty contains exemptions for national security, public order or public health, but Robertson says the 14-day hotel quarantine system deals with the health challenges of returning citizens.
New Zealand may not have strict caps like Australia, but entry is effectively capped by the available space in managed isolation. When isolation hotels are full, people cannot book a flight.
‘‘It’s tough, especially for people who have tickets booked, but it is a global pandemic.’’ Tony Blakely epidemiologist