University challenge
Pre-Covid, the international education sector was a $5 billion industry. Now our universities are having to get creative to stay above water.
New Zealand’s international education sector use to be a major part of the economy. The $5 billion it pumped into the country annually supported around 45,000 jobs and made it our fifth-largest export earner.
Universities New Zealand chief executive Chris Whelan says that, pre-Covid-19, the sector expected between 21,000 and 22,000 international students in 2020. About 7000 had not made it into the country.
In 2021, that number is expected to double.
Not every country is experiencing the same loss. Whelan says students are picking countries they can get into.
‘‘We know Canada, they’ve got about 98 per cent of their forecast international students. We know United Kingdom . . . preenrolments are up 9 per cent on forecast, because students can’t get into Australia or New Zealand, so they are going to countries where they can. It’s got massive long-term costs for New Zealand.’’
News that 1000 international students will be allowed back in this year has been welcomed across the sector but the eight universities are still being forced to make difficult decisions, from staff redundancies, to cutting courses, to asking staff to take pay cuts.
There is a human side as well: From one student feeling like he was ‘‘watching YouTube’’ to complete his degree, to another not being able to go home after the death of his father.
Stuff’s education reporters spoke to the universities, international students stuck overseas, and those who made it back into the country, about their experiences of Covid-19.
University of Auckland
2019 international students: 5454 bringing in $167.09 million
2020 international students: 4991 bringing in $165.84m
2021 (projected based on the key assumption the border will re-open for Semester 2, 2021): 4168 bringing in $141.03m
Syakir Nasir is a second-year University of Auckland student – but he has never stepped foot in New Zealand.
After starting his Bachelor of Commerce degree online, the 21-year-old from Malaysia was supposed to join on-campus learning in July 2020. Now he doesn’t know when he’ll be able to come here or whether he will even make it before he graduates.
He says he was ‘‘super excited’’ when the Government announced it would grant 1000 students exemptions, before realising he did not meet the criteria because he did not hold a student visa for 2020.
Studying remotely is hard, he says. It was a struggle to catch up with work, and lecturers were difficult to contact because of the time difference. ‘‘It feels like we are watching YouTube videos to get this degree.’’
As an onshore international student, Afiqah Ramizi, 23, counts herself one of the lucky ones. The president of the New Zealand International Students’ Association and fifth-year medical student at Auckland University says for some students covered by the new border exemptions, the price for graduation will be too high.
Fees for international students are many times what their Kiwi peers pay. Take Nasir’s commerce degree – for international students, annual fees are $38,900 to $42,200. For domestic students, it’s $6300 to $8400.
The 1000 returning students will also have to prove they have $20,000 in living costs – $5000 more than the old requirement – and will have to cover their managed isolation stay.
While universities need the money that international students bring in, they should recognise students are not immune from the financial hardships of the pandemic, Ramizi says.
Despite no indication from the Government that borders will open for international students at scale soon, Auckland University is banking on 2021 seeing their return.
Last year, international students brought in $166 million in fees to the university, down about $1m from 2019. This year, the projected income from the students
is $141m – a $25m decrease from last year, and still reliant on them being able to enter from semester 2.
The university introduced costsaving measures last year including a voluntary leaving scheme, reducing the number of fixed-term and casual staff, delaying recruitment and cutting travel costs. Plans for further measures this year are still under discussion, a spokeswoman says. – Josephine Franks
Auckland University of Technology
2019 international students: 5380 2020 international students: 4950, including 500 studying offshore
AUT would not provide information on revenue generated from international students and its projected deficit for 2021.
Auckland University of Technology (AUT) lost 8 per cent of its international student population from 2019 to 2020 – but while numbers on campus fell, interest from overseas soared.
The sticking point, of course, was that none of them could enrol for in-person learning – and the university was unable to tell them when that might change.
A minority are happy to pick up online courses, vice-chancellor Derek McCormack says, but the evolution of digital teaching in 2020 shouldn’t be seen as a silver bullet to falling numbers of onshore international students.
Courses taught solely online aren’t recognised in countries such as China, and McCormack says surveys of international students indicate a preference to wait until on-campus learning is possible.
A selling point for New Zealand universities is the country itself, he says. ‘‘If you’re just doing online courses, you’re up against some pretty big brands and established agencies from across the world.’’
Had AUT been able to tell prospective students they would be able to join on-campus courses from, say, mid-2022, McCormack predicted the uptake of online courses would have been much higher. But with no guarantees as
to when international students will be able to enter the country at scale, the university couldn’t make that promise.
Now McCormack is concerned New Zealand will be left behind in the global student market.
In August, New Zealand was named the most attractive destination for international students because of its handling of Covid-19.
‘‘If we wait till Australia is a hugely attractive place, and they gear up quicker than we do, then we will have lost our competitive advantage,’’ McCormack says.
AUT was tightlipped on just how much it stood to lose from the drop in international student numbers. McCormack says the university will continue cost-saving measures introduced in 2020, including a hiring freeze, restricted capital spending, a slashed travel budget and asking staff not to take up professional development support money.
Last year the university also sought to reduce staffing using a ‘‘voluntary enhanced leaving programme’’ and lost ‘‘quite a number’’ that way.
But making cuts was a tightrope walk, balancing surviving now with the hope of thriving later: ‘‘We don’t want to completely diminish our capacity – we want to be ready to gear up should the opportunity arise.’’ – Josephine Franks
University of Waikato
2019 international students: 2339 bringing in $47.6m
2020 international students: (Figures still subject to audit) roughly 1658 students bringing in just under $40m
2021 (projected): 1200 bringing in $31.2m
Waikato students may be limited to a smaller selection of papers this year, as the university begins to question the ‘‘viability’’ of some courses and programmes – a costcutting strategy to offset a multimillion-dollar deficit.
Early last year, the university discussed options of retiring staff, reducing staff hours, leave without pay, and voluntary redundancies to cut its deficit, at the time estimated at $16m. This was in addition to a $7.5m forecasted deficit for 2020.
In September, vice-chancellor Neil Quigley warned staff to prepare for layoffs, after measures the university had put in place previously weren’t ‘‘sufficient to achieve a sustainable outcome’’.
Four months on, Quigley says the university is now considering restructuring courses.
‘‘This may mean that, in some smaller programmes, students have a reduced range of individual courses to choose from as we are experiencing lower volumes of enrolments.
‘‘However, we are committed to ensuring that students can complete the programmes of study that they have commenced, and investing in areas where there is strong demand.’’
This year Waikato University is expecting about 1200 international students, a decrease from its intake in 2019 of 2339 international students.
That year the university had 10,342 full-time students and in 2020, 9930. The decline in 2020 fulltime students was related to the downturn in international students associated with the border closures.
The university has permission to arrange for around less than 20 per cent of 1200 existing doctoral students, who were outside New Zealand at the time of the border closures, to return through managed isolation in the first quarter.
‘‘The university is forecasting approximately 1200 international students in 2021. This is largely made up of international students (around 1080) already studying in New Zealand, with a small number of students studying online from international locations.
While the 120 extra international students will make some difference, the university has budgeted for a $16.5m loss in revenue from international fees from 2019, down 35 per cent.
Over the past nine months a number of staff have opted for voluntary redundancy, taken enhanced retirement packages, and some contract positions have not been renewed.
Quigley says the reduction in staff levels will help the university cope ‘‘with the revenue shortfall created by the drop in international student numbers’’.
He would not say how many staff members took voluntary redundancy, retirement or were laid off, but says the changes were not only Covid-19 related.
‘‘It is not possible to attribute all of that change to a fall in international student revenue, since some changes reflected business process changes and reviews as well as changes to our teaching and research programmes that would have been needed in any event.
‘‘If additional cost-savings are required, wherever possible the university would look to voluntary redundancies and retirements in the first instance.’’
He says the university is also looking to maximise the occupancy in the halls of residence by encouraging domestic students to take up beds that would have been filled by international students.
‘‘We still have the capacity to invest in areas where there is increased demand and will continue to ensure that students have the best experience possible.’’ Sharnae Hope
Massey University
2019 international students: 5323 bringing in $84m
2020 international students: 4804 (financial figures not yet available)
2021 Massey did not provide information for how many international students were projected or how much money they would generate.
A drop in international student numbers and a multimillion-dollar loss doesn’t paint a good picture for Massey University, which has campuses in Albany, Palmerston North and Wellington.
Online study cushioned some of the blow, with Massey able to keep many of its international students in 2020 through online study or those already in New Zealand.
But numbers are expected to drop this year and the university has forecast a $12m loss for 2020.
Massey had 4804 international students enrolled in 2020: 2815 were in New Zealand, 1844 had intended to come here but studied online due to border closures, and the rest always intended to study online overseas.
A university spokeswoman says Massey is 15 per cent down on international student enrolments from 2020. ‘‘This is hard to predict as it includes returning and new students in such an uncertain and ever-changing global situation.’’
There were 5323 international enrolments in 2019; 5331 in 2018; and 5092 in 2017. About 30,000 students were enrolled overall for each of the past three years.
According to Massey’s annual report, international students brought in $84m in both 2019 and 2018, but the university could not yet provide figures for 2020. Domestic students brought in $112m in 2019 and $108m in 2018.
At Massey’s final council meeting of the year it predicted a $12.8m loss for 2020, and more pain is likely.
A university spokeswoman says the year-end results haven’t been finalised, so the exact losses couldn’t be confirmed, but Massey was budgeting for a deficit for -3 per cent of revenue for 2021.
New Zealand’s border closure affected new and returning international enrolments, she says, but the university had enrolled more than 1000 online.
The university launched a learning centre in Nanjing to support international students in China.
It is not running yet, but all 100 spots filled in three days and Massey is looking at more centres.
Massey has secured a number of the 1000 students allowed to return.
In 2019 and 2018 about half of its doctoral enrolments – 1102 in 2019 – were international students.
Massey has also supported schools so international students completing NCEA level 3 or foundation programmes could stay in the country and continue their studies.
To cut costs, the university at the end of last year asked some staff to consider voluntary cessation. Massey would not say how many had taken cessation.
Staff were also encouraged to take annual leave at Christmas.
Massey was already looking at restructuring some of its colleges before Covid-19, but casual science staff were cut in May.
A senior staff member at the Albany campus, who did not want to be identified, says the understanding was that nothing would happen until February, but he fears he will be pressured to take redundancy. ‘‘In February they will . . . offer redundancy packages. If they don’t get enough people it will get a bit nasty after that.’’
He believes there will be forced redundancies if not enough people volunteer. ‘‘The feeling is that they will do it slowly, working on groups.’’
George Heagney
Victoria University of Wellington
2019 international students: 2047, bringing in $46m
2020 international students: 1817, bringing in $43m
2021 (projected): As few as 800, bringing in between $20m and $23m
In 2019, Victoria University had 2047 full-fee paying international students walk through its doors, contributing $46m in gross tuition costs. By 2020 the numbers dropped to 1817, with $43m in gross fees. In 2021, it estimates as few as 800 will be enrolled.
The university will release its audited 2020 deficit in April, but expects a material loss as a result of international students being unable to return. In November, vice-chancellor Grant Guilford expected the deficit to be between $10m and $19m.
‘‘The impact of the border closure and the absence of international students will have a rollover effect on the university for at least the next one to three years,’’ a spokesperson says.
The university is already undergoing a voluntary redundancy scheme, along with other programmes such as asking staff to take voluntary pay cuts, and offering short-term professional development courses, to increase revenue.
But, while the numbers of international students stuck on the wrong side of the border are worrying for the institution, for students already in the country, the pandemic poses other problems.
Terry Ang, who is in his final year at Victoria’s law school, made it from Malaysia in March 2020, just before the border closed.
He was aware of how lucky he
was but the experience did not come without its challenges.
Many students came from countries that were struggling to contain Covid-19, so, while they felt safe in New Zealand, many were scared for their families.
‘‘It’s like we got the golden ticket, but our families did not.’’
And having got into New Zealand, students cannot leave again. This problem hit Ang acutely when his father died unexpectedly a week before Christmas. Knowing he would be unable to return if he left the country, he decided to stay in Wellington. While it was hard being away from his family, it was a decision he knew his father, who had paid his fees for the year, would have supported.
He normally saw his family once a year, but says realistically it will be at least mid-way through 2022 before he can go home. At that stage, he will have gone over two years without seeing his family. Laura Wiltshire
University of Canterbury
2019 international students: 1869, bringing in $48m
2020 international students: 1700, bringing in $45m
2021 (projected): Estimated $18m fall in international student revenue
University of Canterbury (UC) is projecting a budget deficit of $14.9m for 2021, in part due to an estimated $18m fall in international student revenue.
UC’s overall intake rose from 14,064 in 2018 to 15,375 in 2020. Of those, 1700 were international students. There were 1704 international students in 2018, 1871 in 2019 and 1700 in 2020 (figures were from November of each year).
In 2020, international tuition fee income was $45m, down from $48m in 2019. And figures show an estimated $18m drop in international student revenue in 2021.
Keith Longden, UC’s executive director of planning, finance and ITS, says the reduction will be ‘‘offset by strong growth in domestic students, reducing the financial impact by roughly half’’.
‘‘UC is fortunate to be able to draw on cash reserves to absorb this. We are reducing costs where possible, but this will not impact on personnel costs or course delivery at this time.
‘‘Almost all sectors and institutions have been financially affected in some way by Covid-19, so this situation is not unique to the University of Canterbury.’’
No courses or programmes had been dropped as a direct result of Covid-19. However, 36 positions have been made redundant, and five retiring staff, and one who resigned, will not be replaced.
‘‘Like many others, we need to make hard decisions and seek innovative solutions as we face significant financial challenges,’’ Longden says. ‘‘Despite the ongoing financial impact of Covid-19, all agreed pay increases for UC staff have been, and will continue to be, honoured.’’
The number of fulltime international PhD students at UC has outstripped domestic students each year since 2013. In 2019, there were 429 overseas PhD students,
compared to 307 New Zealand citizens or permanent residents.
In September 2020, a UC spokesperson said 71 current UC PhD students were unable to return to New Zealand. They are ‘‘working on a suite of research projects’’.
Kim Fowler, president of the university’s students’ association, which supports over 160 clubs and societies, says students are excited to be back on campus after 2020.
‘‘We’re definitely missing our international students, but I’m happy to see that more of them will be back in the country soon with the Government announcement.’’ Lee Kenny
Lincoln University
2019 international students: 1592 bringing in $22.1m
2020: 1316 (figures due in February 2021)
2021 (projected): 666 who are active in a programme and expected to return (unless they complete in summer school 2020-21).
In 2019, Lincoln University (LU) had the highest proportion of international students of any NZ university. Its total student population was 3305, of which 1592 (48 per cent) were from overseas.
The intake came from 78
countries and the number of international students in 2019 increased by 21.4 per cent compared with the previous year, according to LU’s annual report.
‘‘Although China continues to be the major source market, it is supported by strong growth from India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Vietnam,’’ the report says.
Last October, the university said it would reduce staff numbers by 5 per cent, and 55 staff members have opted to take voluntary redundancy.
LU currently has 666 international students in the country, active in a programme and expected to return in 2021, unless they complete in summer school.
Despite the fall in international student numbers, domestic enrolments are at a four-year high.
In 2018 there were 332 domestic students, but as of December 14, 2020, 596 new and returning domestic students had enrolled in a course (but not fully enrolled) for 2021.
Final numbers will be confirmed in February, says a spokeswoman. ‘‘Even with an increase in domestic enrolments, the university is budgeting for a $3 million loss for 2021,’’ she says.
Despite the reduction in international students, no modules or courses are being dropped. ‘‘We continue to offer more compelling new solutions to the profoundly altered structure of the post-Covid employment market, including supporting domestic students into jobs in the food and fibre sectors, and offering fee waivers in selected graduate and post-graduate cohorts.’’
Lincoln also had the highest percentage of its PhD students from overseas. Of the 311 students enrolled as Doctor of Philosophy candidates, 232 (74.5 per cent) were international and 79 were domestic.
The number of international PHD students at LU has risen from 148 in 2012, to its peak of 252 in 2018.
‘‘Lincoln had 48 international students with an accepted application for a PhD in 2020,’’ a spokeswoman says. ‘‘We have 10 students who were unable to enter the country to start their PhD studies.
‘‘The university has adopted a case-by-case approach to determine how we can best serve and support research students in these difficult times.’’
Lee Kenny
Otago University
2019 international students: 1672 bringing in $48.7m
2020: 1322 (provisional) bringing in $43.6m
2021 (projected): 983 bringing in $34.2m
At the University of Otago (UO), international student numbers are capped, meaning it has been better insulated from the dramatic decline in enrolments.
The reduction in overseas students will mean a fall in international tuition-fee income from $48.7m in 2019, to a projected $34.2m for 2021.
However, David Thomson, UO’s director of strategy, says the university has no plans for redundancies ‘‘nor to cut any courses as a result of Covid-19’’.
‘‘We are in this position in relation to courses and staffing in large measure because Otago has had a long-established cap on its international enrolments, which permits international students to comprise a maximum of 15 per cent of the total student roll and no more than 25 per cent from any one country,’’ he says.
‘‘Additionally, the university has implemented a range of measures to reduce expenditure, including significant restrictions
on work-related travel, that is saving several million dollars.’’
UO’s international student numbers are forecast to fall from 1672 in 2019 to 983 for 2021.
But despite the reduction, overall student numbers are forecast to decline by about 500, due to an increase in domestic enrolments.
There were 1602 international students in 2018, 1672 in 2019 and 1322 in 2020 (provisional final). It is forecast there will be 983 in 2021.
This year’s international student intake will include overseas students already in New Zealand, most of whom will currently be in Year 13 at a New Zealand secondary school.
Also, there will be new enrolments from students overseas who will study online in the more than 20 qualifications (mainly postgraduate).
Sinead Gill, editor of UO student magazine Critic, says ‘‘the general sense is that international students are happy’’ with how the university has handled the situation.
‘‘Student life at Otago hinges on its social scene, but that hasn’t been affected much by international students not being around so much as Covid-19 has in general.’’
Rachel Spronken-Smith, dean of UO’s Graduate Research School, says UO admits about 300 PhD students each year, with 40-50 per cent from overseas.
‘‘In addition to those who are starting remotely, we have about 50 [students] who are overseas and part-way through their candidature,’’ she says. ‘‘Many became stuck while on holiday or while overseas doing fieldwork or visiting laboratories.
‘‘Of these, about 10 can complete their thesis from overseas, but the other 40 are waiting to return to complete their study.’’