No plan B for missing 90 per cent target
The Government had to deliver a plan yesterday for getting out of alert levels, lockdowns and learning to live with Covid-19. Standing in the Beehive banquet hall with sun streaming in through the windows, the prime minister delivered one.
The new traffic light system which will replace the current alert levels framework looks complicated at first blush, but it will probably be simpler to use once people are used to it.
For the vaccinated, the world will essentially go into a new phase. The green-orange-red-light system is effectively the current level 1, and then effectively levels 1.5 and a level 2.5.
But the new rules will only take effect when each of the district health board areas across the motu reaches 90 per cent vaccination rate of eligible populations. It is a tall order. If achieved, it will give New Zealand one of the highest vaccination rates in the world.
Once the three DHBs in Auckland have reached 90 per cent, Auckland will go into one of the new settings: red, which is effectively a level 2.5 for the vaccinated. Shops, bars and restaurants will have similar restrictions to level 2, but some place such as hairdressers and gyms will be closed.
The rest of the country will likely go into the orange-light setting once 90 per cent vaccination coverage has been reached.
For all businesses that operate with vaccine certificates it will basically be business as usual.
What this plan makes clear is that the unvaccinated will miss out on a lot of things. This will also apply to businesses where people are in close contact, such as hairdressers, beauty salons, gyms.
If you need to go to the shops, you’ll be fine. Want to go and have a drink or a coffee? Probably not. This might well be the lot of the unvaccinated for years.
The toughest part of the announcement, undoubtedly, was for Auckland. Aucklanders have now been locked down for more than two months and could be looking at a further four to six weeks at least.
Although the fact that Covid is only in Auckland and Waikato – at the moment – is good for everyone who lives outside those areas, it also greatly complicates things for the Government.
Instead of transitioning the whole country to the new system once 90 per cent vaccination is reached, there will be a period during which Auckland is locked down, and then possibly under different restrictions to the rest of the country.
The bottom line is that it’s rubbish to be in Auckland or Hamilton right now, but dialling down restrictions there before everyone had the chance to get their second jab would be both inequitable and probably lead to a much higher rate of cases. There’s just no way around it. Even ACT’s proposed freedom day is December 1.
While National leader Judith Collins was clearly very unhappy about Auckland’s lockdown being extended, there wasn’t much by way of an alternative proposed. National’s plan would still have restrictions based on current vaccination rates.
The system itself, which appears quite complicated on paper, actually seems like it will be easier to understand once we’re living with it. Because it doesn’t require lockdowns, it appears more likely that any given traffic light setting will remain for a longish period. For people living under the vaccine pass regime, life will basically be normal but with masks.
As part of the package the Government will double some of its economic support payments to business.
The biggest question is what will Jacinda Ardern and co do if a number of DHBs can’t reach the vaccination rate? The prime minister’s view is simple: the fact that you won’t be able to get a haircut, go to a cafe, get a beer or go to church will tip a lot of people into getting vaccinated.
But having an aspiration to get to 90 per cent and getting there are two different things. Already it is unclear when the certificates will be available – they’ve now been pushed back from November to December. Without those the whole system won’t be going anywhere.
There is also the very real possibility that some health boards won’t get to 90 per cent. At the moment there isn’t a plan B, but the PM did indicate the Government would be ‘‘pragmatic’’ about it. So if a couple of DHBs hit 88.9 per cent it might be OK. But what if some get only to 83 per cent?
Ardern’s view is that most people who are not inoculated aren’t anti-vaxxers, they just haven’t got around to it, or live in parts of the country where they think Covid-19 won’t affect them – hence why vaccine certificates will be necessary.
With Delta, there was a determination to get rid of it – and no real plan B – but despite our best efforts this didn’t happen. There were 127 new cases yesterday.
Overall the traffic light plan looks good and proportionate to the risk of Covid-19. But it will be the journey of getting there over the next couple of months that will be messy and tough.
And it’ll be really naff for people who have decided to not get vaccinated.
If you need to go to the shops, you’ll be fine. Want to go and have a drink or a coffee? Probably not. This might well be the lot of the unvaccinated for years.