Hipkins moves to stem the bleeding
Chris Hipkins’ Labour has moved full throttle to start to clear the policy decks, stem the bleeding of voters in Auckland from red to blue and paint its new leader as large and in charge.
The size of Hipkins’ challenge should not be underestimated. Despite a jump in both the major TV polls for Labour, bringing the party back neck and neck with National, Labour is now only drawing level in an environment that should, on paper, be favourable to centre-right parties.
The clear issues at the moment – and others could certainly come up between now and the October 14 election – are the economy, law and order and, by Hipkins’ own admission, a Government doing stuff voters won’t really understand or want.
Hipkins is also fighting against history. There has not been a party in post-World War II New Zealand which has changed prime ministers and then won power again at the next election. He is up against it.
When he extended the petrol and road user charge excise cuts, as well as half-price public transport (which Finance Minister Grant Robertson made a big deal of ending only a month and a half ago) yesterday, he put his stamp on the new Government.
When asked why the change had occurred, Robertson answered simply that it was ‘‘because we’ve got a new prime minister and he asked all ministers to go away and look at what we could do to get our focus on to the cost of living issues’’.
This first move was a politics no-brainer, especially with the pressure the floods will now put on the city. You can’t talk about keeping costs down and then jack up petrol taxes.
It was also strange from a strictly political perspective that Robertson decided to end the excise cuts at the end of last year – but good on him for trying to demonstrate fiscal rectitude and making the point at the time that it was ‘‘not sustainable to continue to subsidise the cost of petrol indefinitely for everyone’’. It isn’t and these things do have a habit of becoming permanent.
Transport Minister Michael Wood even said last year that halfprice public transport was relatively poor quality spending. But Hipkins has come in with a more acutely political consideration. Labour will find the money to top up the National Land Transport Fund – into which the excise is funnelled – from elsewhere.
National has and will criticise the move by asking where the money is coming from for this. It will no doubt suggest that it could delay the return to Budget surplus currently projected for 2025.
National deputy Nicola Willis is on strong ground pointing out that this is a short-term fix to a longterm problem. And it’s a tough one: everyone wants to be on the side of consumers in the current environment.
But the stronger critique is one of consistency and personnel: how is it that something the minister of finance thought a good idea 48 days ago, when it was known that inflation would most probably stay high, is now not a good idea this year? That goes to credibility.
Then there is the issue of Auckland. While fuel costs matter to everyone everywhere and are a key input cost in shipping goods around the country, they are a particular burden in Auckland where
Auckland is where elections are won and lost.
many people have long commutes to get to work – or just get around.
Which brings us to the new minister for Auckland, Michael Wood. Clearly the idea that there be such a minister is only a few days old (even if there was one under Helen Clark’s government), and it almost certainly has little to do with mayor Wayne Brown’s abject public handling of the flood response.
Instead, it has to do with the fact many voters are still angry with Labour over the extended lockdowns in 2021, which on just about any reading – save the most narrow public health one – lasted longer than they should have.
Auckland is where elections are won and lost. Covid smashed the city and Hipkins admitted as much on Tuesday when announcing Wood’s role. ‘‘We’ve still got a bit of a job to do to get Auckland fully back on its feet after the experience of the last couple of years.’’
But it will now be up to Hipkins and Wood to prove that the appointment is a substantive one and that Wood is more than a bloke with a hard hat and a badge that says ‘‘Auckland’’.
There will (sensibly) be no ministry for Auckland and it seems that while he will get the use of some of the Government’s policy people in the region, it will be more about being seen to care about Auckland and prioritising its issues around the Cabinet table.
How that goes with Wayne Brown, who has made clear his disdain for being told what to do by Wellington, as well as Aucklanders more generally, remains to be seen.
Overall, Hipkins is making his stamp on the new Government and to truly differentiate himself from Jacinda Ardern. He will have to keep the hits coming, but his new strategy is well and truly under way.