Rain a reprieve from El Nino
Rain across parched parts of eastern New Zealand this week may have eased dry conditions but a summer drought fuelled by El Nino is still on the cards.
Forecasters say the current El Nino weather pattern is still strengthening and looks likely to peak early next year.
Some of the latest long-term computer models show its reign as a drought maker could be quite short though. The models indicate it may quickly weaken during next autumn.
El Nino typically brings dry or very dry conditions to the east of both islands and much wetter than usual weather to the west. An El Nino spring tends to be cold and stormy, and that can last through December before flicking to warmer and drier weather in January and beyond.
MetService forecaster Georgina Griffiths said the wet, grey, easterly weather this week had been ‘‘very non-El Nino like’’. The place to be for sunshine was the South Island’s west coast and the far south.
Instead of a succession of fast- moving fronts from the west, weather systems in the New Zealand region had become slowmoving and largely blocked.
The upside of this was ‘‘useful rain’’, particularly for Marlborough and the Wairarapa where 30 millimetres to 40mm had fallen, while Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay received too much. Dried-out parts of North Canterbury had also been given relief, with about 15mm for Cheviot in the 24 hours to 9am on Wednesday.
It showed that even in a strong climatic pattern like this El Nino the weather did not always do what might generally be imagined, she said.
‘‘Climate is what we expect and weather is what we get. The weather trumps climate and it will every time. This beautiful rain, which is very non-El Nino like, is a very important top-up for farmers to start the season. If we can get one more like this before Christmas, any impact of El Nino postChristmas would be not quite as bad.’’
Ground temperatures in parts of the South Island were up to 1 degree Celsius colder than normal, which could delay the start of grass and crop growth in some spots, Griffiths said.
Nationally, this week and next were expected to be colder than average but there were signs temperatures in the the week starting October 5 would creep back up to normal levels.
Despite that, El Nino would leave the country generally feeling chillier than usual through to the end of the year.
‘‘It’s not going to be hot till at least January,’’ Griffiths said.
The El Nino had not yet reached ‘‘super El Nino’’ status.