Geopolitical rivalries fuelledby Australia’s search for new subs
It is worth A$50 billion (NZ$55.9b), it will create tens of thousands of jobs, and the ripples will be felt across the Asia-Pacific region for decades to come. It is the great Australian submarine deal, and now it is becoming personal.
Companies from Japan, Germany and France are competing for the contract to build 12 new stealth submarines to replace Australia’s present ageing fleet.
But the technical and cost merits of the three tenders are taking second place to an even bigger consideration– how will Australia’s choice of supplier affect its crucial relationship with Asia’s emerging superpower, China?
Buying Japanese could harm Australia’s long-term interests by enraging Beijing, whose always tense relationship with Tokyo has deteriorated further over the past decade.
Although the Japanese bid appears to be the favourite, its French and German competitors are doing their best to sow unease about the wisdom of taking sides in one of Asia’s tensest geopolitical rivalries.
All three are intensively lobbying the Australian government as it prepares to make a decision later this year.
As Hans Atzpodien, chairman of Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems, said in Canberra yesterday: ‘‘It is an advantage dealing with us not to be in a position where you have to – let’s say – decide between certain heavyweights of the Pacific area.’’
None of the three countries has a submarine that exactly fits Australia’s specifications, and all are to some extent adapting designs.
The German proposal involves doubling the size of its 2000-tonne Type 214 Class vessel. DCNS, the French company, is offering to install a diesel-electric engine in a nuclear submarine.
The vessel on offer from Japan is the Soryu, built by Mitsubishi and Kawasaki Heavy Industries, the world’s largest and quietest nonnuclear submarine.
At 84 metres long, with a submerged displacement of 4200 tonnes, it is the biggest Japanese submarine sinceWorld War II. Its long range and endurance suit the needs of Australia, a continental nation isolated by wide stretches of ocean. The version on offer would replace diesel engines with even quieter lithium ion batteries.
For decades Japanese companies were banned by their own government from selling defence equipment overseas, in acknowledgement of the postwar ‘‘peace’’ constitution. But in 2014 the nationalist prime minister Shinzo Abe changed the rules to allow arms exports, the first of which could be the Soryu.
If the submarine wins the Aust-
existing ralian order, it will annoy China, which is suspicious of anything suggesting Japan’s re-emergence as a military power but it will excite interest in the international defence industry, as a new and important player takes the field.
Until 1945 Japan’s arms companies and shipbuilders were among the best in the world. Following the imposition by the United States of the pacifist constitution, Imperial forces were replaced by the SelfDefence Forces, and Japan’s arms industry was permitted to trade only within the country.
As part of reforms of Japan’s security policy, Abe dropped the ban. Japanese companies are still forbidden from selling equipment to countries under sanctions, or actively engaged in conflict, and technology cannot be sold on to third parties, but a range of defence products can now be marketed overseas.
For Australia, this may prove to be an attraction which outweighs any displeasure caused to China – a strategic partnership with Asia’s richest democracy, taking tentative steps towards becoming a military power in Asia once again.