Living to 90 will be the new normal

BRITAIN: Scientists believe that average life expectancy will hit 90, a figure once considered impossible, by 2030.

Researchers writing in The Lancet say that a woman born in South Korea in 2030 can expect to live for 90.8 years, compared with 84.2 in 2010. By then, British women will have a life expectancy of 85.3 and British men a life expectancy of 82.5, compared with 82.3 and 78.3 years respectively in 2010.

Majid Ezzati, of Imperial College London, who led the research, said: ‘‘Many people used to believe that 90 years is the upper limit for life expectancy, but this research suggests we will break the 90-year barrier. I don’t believe we’re anywhere near the upper limit of life expectancy - if there even is one.’’

The study predicts that life expectancy will be highest for women in South Korea, followed by France (88.6 years) and Japan (88.4 years). For men, life expectancy will be highest in South Korea (84.1 years), followed by Australia and Switzerland (both 84 years).

The researchers adapted a statistical technique used in weather forecasting to determine their projections and how confident they could be about them. For example, there is a 90 per cent probability that life expectancy for South Korean women in 2030 will be higher than 86.7 years, and a 57 per cent probability that it will be higher than 90 years.

While life expectancy is expected to increase compared with 2010 in all 35 countries involved in the study, the extent varies widely.

The United States is predicted to experience some of the smallest increases, at 2.1 years for women and three years for men, because of large inequalities, the lack of universal health insurance, and the fact that it has the highest homicide rate, body mass index and death rates for children and mothers of all high-income countries.

On the other hand, South Korea’s projected gains are thanks to improvements in childhood nutrition and access to healthcare and medical technology, which have been spread more fairly throughout society than in many Western countries.

The researchers also looked at the life expectancy for people who will turn 65 in 2030. They found that women were likely to live an additional 24 years in 11 of the 35 countries, and that men were likely to live an additional 20 years in 22 countries. - The Times