World’s food future ‘in jeopardy’

UNITED NATIONS: The world will have trouble feeding itself in decades to come unless countries undertake ‘‘major transformations’’ to the way they grow and distribute food, the United Nations says in a report that paints a picture of a bleak and hungry future.

Because of growing global population - experts estimate that the world will have 10 billion mouths to feed in 2050, compared with 7.3b today - agricultural output will need to increase by 50 per cent, the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has warned.

It says there are a number of related challenges beyond just a growing population. Diets are changing from ones heavy on cereals to include more meat, which requires significantly more grain and water. The average Chinese person went from consuming 13 kilograms of meat per year in 1982 to 63kg in 2016.

Groundwater sources themselves are being depleted rapidly. From the central valley of California to northern China, water reserves in 21 of 37 of the world’s largest aquifers are on the decline. Two billion people around the world rely on aquifers for their water supply.

Likewise, climate change is altering weather and precipitation patterns, and in decades to come this is expected to shrink agricultural yields, especially in already vulnerable regions like the Sahel in Africa.

Together, they are creating a ticking time bomb. The UN estimates that 600 million people will be undernourished in 2030, and overall global food security will be ‘‘in jeopardy’’, unless there is a concerted effort to change eating habits and mitigate the worst effects of climate change.

Avoiding the report’s dire forecasts is possible, if pricey, the report’s lead author said.

Lorenzo Bellu, senior economist with the FAO, said additional annual investments of US$265b would be needed from now until 2030 to keep the hungry fed. This could include investments in new agricultural technology to improve crop yields, researching genetically modified organisms, new distribution methods, and more investments in humanitarian aid and development.

But it would also require shaking unsustainable habits, such as intensive agriculture, overconsumption of meat, and little practical action to tackle the causes of climate change, he said.

‘‘Business as usual is not an option any more. The challenges we identified go beyond the capacities of any single specific country.’’

Bellu noted that in many cases, hunger was due to a lack of access or purchasing power, not a shortage of food. Countries wracked by conflict are especially prone to disruptions to agricultural activities and food distribution.

Currently, one country, South Sudan, is already in famine, and three others - Yemen, Nigeria, and Somalia, are all on the brink of famine. It is no coincidence that those countries are embroiled in armed conflict.

The world would ‘‘absolutely, without question’’ be able to feed itself in coming decades if it was simply a matter of growing enough food, said Kimberly Flowers, director of the Global Food Security Project at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

The problem is everything not related to food that manages to get in the way of a full belly. ‘‘It’s not just about responding to hungry people, it’s about responding to long-standing political strife, conflict, and inequality’’ Flowers said. - Foreign Policy-Washington Post Times.