Slow and steady as she goes
Bill English’s Cabinet reshuffle is deeply unexciting, but that’s become his hallmark. If slow and steady wins the race, English’s Government is a shoo-in for the elections.
Gerry Brownlee takes over from Murray McCully at foreign affairs. Brownlee has a bad temper and occasionally lashes out in unconsidered ways, but he’s unlikely to cause trouble in the courts of the truly powerful.
McCully retired after saying nothing publicly of any interest on any subject except on the rare occasions when he was presiding over a revolt by his officials. His deeply unwise restructuring of Foreign Affairs has left plenty of damage, but the core of the department remains competent. They will guide Brownlee in his dealings abroad.
English claims that his Government’s foreign policy is a conspicuously independent one, but this is not obvious. McCully has trodden carefully on all matters to do with either of New Zealand’s major patrons, the United States and China.
The advent of Trump makes life more difficult for loyal allies such as English’s Government, if only because Trump is so reckless. No American leader has ever been so ignorant or as quixotic in his conduct of foreign policy.
For that reason New Zealand needs to be even stauncher in its championship of multilateral diplomacy and thoughtfulness. This might not sound a natural fit for Brownlee, but he will adapt to his new position.
Brownlee takes over just as Trump and the North Korean dictator are trading ill-timed blows, including one remarkable exchange in which the president seemed to have misplaced an aircraft carrier. The scope for accidental international war has rarely seemed more real.
As expected, Nikki Kaye picks up education, where she is unlikely to cause much trouble. She is a less erratic performer than her predecessor, Hekia Parata.
But Kaye will also bear the burden of selling the replacement of the decile system of funding. This is a major policy shift and will invite suspicion and opposition. It will not be an easy ride.
Nick Smith retains most of his housing responsibilities and English has therefore lost his last chance to make a major change to the policy which has caused most harm to his government. He had the opportunity to remove the architect of the ‘‘do-little’’ housing policy and fix a new course.
He has decided not to do this, perhaps because doing so would in effect be an admission of failure. In any case he is a deeply cautious politician and he and Smith are mates from long ago. So English has opted for timidity and hopes that the momentum he inherited from John Key won’t run out, or start reversing, before election day.
The other changes promote politicians unknown to the wider public in a move which English says shows the depth of National’s talent. The voters will have to take his word for it.
Finally, there is no big promotion for Jonathan Coleman. English knows, as prime ministers before him have known, that health is a good place to bury potential leadership rivals.