Who won the last leaders debate?
It’s personal now. Jacinda Ardern turned up to her final debate with Bill English looking and sounding like someone who is in a fight for their political life. And she is.
The latest One News Colmar Brunton poll had Labour crashing to 37 per cent, down 7 points from the same poll a week ago. Labour’s pain was National’s gain – it was up 6 points to 46 per cent.
Assuming we all believe the poll – and they’ve been so volatile nobody is sure any more – this is the vindication National needed that going negative works.
Its campaign to persuade voters Labour will raid their pay packets by raising personal income tax, hatched when the tide was against it, is desperate and dubious – and it seems to be doing the trick.
What National actually means is that Labour won’t implement National’s promised tax cuts if it wins power. But no matter. The idea that income taxes are going up under Labour has stuck and Ardern has been boxing shadows.
Ardern arrived at the TVNZ studio armed and ready to take the fight back to English. The two leaders were only rarely let loose on each other – moderator Mike Hosking ran it more like an interview than a debate, albeit a hard-hitting one. But whenever Ardern and English were given a chance, their exchanges were tetchier and far more personal than we have seen in any of their previous outings.
On health, on tax and on water, Ardern hit back at English and his Government’s record. But it was on National’s claimed $11 billion hole in Labour’s bookkeeping that Ardern got angry, demanding English look her in the eye and repeat the claim.
But English was just as riled; he got angry defending his Government’s record, and his closing statement was almost a stare down.
It was Ardern’s debate though – but like all the others between her and English, it was close. And with the clock ticking down to Saturday, and more than 20 per cent of early votes already cast, this debate was probably never going to be the one that turned the tide – which ever way that tide is going.