Poll dials up hard-earned smile for National
OPINION: Another poll, another major shift in support, this time one that will bring a smile to Bill English’s face .
The Left bloc – Labour and the Greens – is still close to National’s support, but the 1News-Colmar Brunton poll had been the only one consistently showing Labour ahead of National. No more. Wednesday’s survey showed National surging 6 points to 46 per cent while Labour shed 7 to 37 per cent. The Greens were solid at 8 per cent, up 1 point, but NZ First was on the edge at 5 per cent.
On those numbers we are back to a familiar position with National and ACT just short of a majority and Winston Peters in the monarch-making role again.
It is in line with both parties’ own polling, which have consistently shown a lead for National – of varying degrees.
The new poll comes against the backdrop of some significant tactical moves that have boosted National’s stocks.
The most obvious is its brutal attack against Labour over tax, prompting finance spokesman Grant Robertson to hit back hard accusing National of deception.
At issue is National’s claim Labour will ‘‘increase income taxes’’ because it would prevent National’s (legislated) tax cuts going ahead next April.
It is a half truth at best. When does a promised future tax cut by one party – even one put into law using the power of incumbency – become a tax increase by another if it does not go ahead?
However, the crux is that it is working for National. Labour probably should have hit back harder earlier – even at the risk of compromising its ‘‘relentlessly positive’’ approach.
But there is another ploy in play; the squeeze being put on Winston Peters and NZ First.
He is clearly being out-shone by Jacinda Ardern and English and his support is hanging by a thread – and possibly his Northland seat.
A wreck of an interview on RNZ would have been of major concern to anyone outside the ‘‘stick-it-to-themWinston’’ crowd.
He seemed to have only a nodding acquaintance with his policies and their costings, but for now he remains on the cusp of power between National and the Labour-Green bloc.
The Greens have recovered from their Metiria Turei-induced dive and look safe, but again not in the numbers they would have hoped.
But compared with a couple of months ago the Greens, as well as NZ First and ACT, are being crushed between the two dancing elephants.
It was difficult enough for them all once Labour’s fortunes recovered.
But English has been running a ruthless campaign to squeeze the minors even more.
It started with his calculated characterisation of the election as a ‘‘drag race’’ between Labour and National.
He intensified that in the past week with his call for voters to ‘‘cut out the middleman’’ and vote for one of the big two.
The tactic is transparent and multifaceted.
First it favours National to have a straight race, because it is more likely to end up ahead of Labour – if only because it has the 6-8 per cent presence of the Greens on its side of the spectrum. National has no party of substance.
Second, it is intended to be a powerful ultimatum to NZ First voters. Pick your side. And it seems they are.
Third, it tells the few tens of thousands of remaining ACT voters to ignore David Seymour’s plea for more party votes. The implication is to leave him in lone splendour with the Epsom seat.
In addition, a very low ACT party vote will turn Epsom into an ‘‘overhang’’ seat; potentially the 121st seat in Parliament that could be decisive if things are close.
If National can preserve a lead over
English has been running a ruthless campaign to squeeze the minors [parties] even more.
Labour – even if it is behind the combined Labour-Green vote – then it will seize an important tactical advantage.
Peters has consistently said that in any post-election negotiations he will talk first to the largest party.
It is not just on English’s own side of the aisle that the ‘‘drag race’’ message can have an impact.
If he can persuade floating Green voters that they should tick Labour instead, he might just help engineer the Greens falling below the 5 per cent threshold.
Conversely that is why Ardern has been keen to express confidence the Greens will make it above 5 per cent. She will be keen to avert a mass exodus of Green voters but also stem any tide of ‘‘tactical’’ voting by Labour supporters who think they need to ensure Labour a coalition partner.
Ardern and Labour want the Greens to survive, but 5.01 per cent would be just enough, thanks.
The final wrinkle on the tactics – but one that is fading on Wednesday’s poll figures – is that if the Greens and NZ First both collapse below 5 per cent it improves National’s chances of a fourth term.
With close to 10 per cent ‘‘wasted vote’’ between the Greens, NZ First and TOP – as well as some rats and mice parties – it could govern with little more than 45 per cent of the vote.
Conversely Labour’s best chance is if they both survive, giving it governing options to its right and left.
It is going to be an interesting last three days.