Falling migration tipped to pick up pace

Forecasters are predicting a decline in immigration will speed up next year.

Westpac believes net immigration could crash to just 10,000 in

2021, which is one-seventh of its current level.

Annual migration fell to a

10-month low of 70,694 in the year to October, down from a peak of

72,402 in the year to July, according to Statistics New Zealand’s latest data.

Infometrics said fewer people were arriving on resident visas and previous rule changes had seen the number of foreign students arriving plateau at a level of about 4000 below its 2016 high.

‘‘Tighter requirements from the previous National-led Government have raised the bar for skilled migrant residents and reduced eligibility for family-based resident visas,’’ it said.

Infometrics forecast further rule changes by the new Labourled Government would accelerate the trend next year.

‘‘The number of student migrants has held relatively stable over the past six months, but it is likely to fall further once Labour

"Most of this change is due to natural forces – like the strength of the global economy – rather than policy."

Westpac economist Satish Ranchhod

implements its new migration policies,’’ it said.

‘‘Reducing the amount of time students can be in paid employment while in New Zealand could deter about 8000 students from entering the country.

‘‘Taking this alteration in tandem with other proposed migration policy changes means that we expect net migration to fall even more rapidly from mid-2018.’’

ANZ said immigration figures for the past three months, if extrapolated out annually, would put annual net immigration at a level just under 65,000.

It said more non-citizens were leaving the country.

‘‘We believe this reflects the natural cycling effect of the large numbers of immigrants who perhaps arrived a few years ago on work or student visas now choosing or having to leave.’’

Westpac economist Satish Ranchhod agreed the migration cycle had turned.

‘‘We expect that … annual net migration will drop from about

70,000 now to 10,000 in 2021. ‘‘Most of this change is due to natural forces that drive net migration – like the strength of the global economy – rather than policy,’’ Ranchhod said.

ASB expected net immigration to fall below 40,000 by the end of

2019, and below 20,000 by the end of

2021.