The year ahead
Shoppers who came to Christchurch over Christmas and since may have felt a new buzz about the place, inspiring confidence that we have turned a corner in the central-city rebuild. The inner-city retail and associated hospitality venues which have opened over the past year or so have made the CBD a destination worth visiting again. The completed justice precinct adds to the already finished commercial developments that have brought workers back into town.
More developments – The Terrace, the Central Library, the Hoyts cinema complex – are due to be finished during 2018. The Town Hall may be completed before the year’s end. Progress will continue on the convention centre.
Things, then, are looking up for Christchurch. Even the vexed question of the cathedral rebuild has at least been settled, with enabling legislation passed before Christmas.
What else can we look forward to in 2018?
The minimum wage will increase 75 cents an hour to $16.50 on April 1, upping the pay packets of 164,000 workers. On the same day, 384,000 families with children will become better off by an average of $75 a week thanks to changes to the tax system, the Working for Families scheme and an increased accommodation supplement.
Meanwhile, about 80,000 students are enrolling for a year of fees-free study under new government policy.
Economic growth is predicted to continue at about 2.5 per cent to 3 per cent this year. Interest rates will remain low, at least for the first three quarters. But the benign economic conditions which have fuelled the rock-star economy in recent years are now more uncertain.
Dairy production for the 2017-18 season is likely to be down 4 per cent on last year. Meanwhile, there are signs that the big three economic drivers – immigration, tourism and construction – have peaked or are running into capacity constraints. These may be exacerbated by curbs on immigration.
The Government’s ambitious house-building plan and restrictions on foreigners owning real estate can be expected to limit the rampant growth in house prices, but will take time to make a difference, and the effects will be patchy. Christchurch seems to have overshot on house-building already but Auckland’s problems will take years to fix. House prices nationwide will probably still rise, but not by as much as in previous years.
Expect big changes to how we live our lives on the technology front – everything from smart technology and more voice recognition in everyday objects, to artificial intelligence, to machine learning and cryptocurrencies. Those electric vehicle charging stations popping up around the place will soon be filled with cars.
Our increasing dependence on technology also carries risks which would not have been foreseen in even the recent past. It is only a matter of time before New Zealand is hit by a WannaCry-type cyber-security attack.
And while the risk of real-world terrorism may remain relatively low in our isolated corner of the world, it cannot be ruled out.
As for natural disasters, some believe we are already seeing the effects of climate change in more droughts and floods. GeoNet says there is a 2 to 14 per cent chance of a very large earthquake (of more than a 7.0 magnitude) in the next 12 months.
Happy New Year.