Marked growth in leadership list
OPINION: Mark who?
Mark Mitchell, the dark horse who has thrown his hat in the ring for the National Party leadership, is the candidate from central casting – a former police officer, injured in the line of duty, turned hostage negotiator and successful businessman.
But great back stories can go one of two ways in politics. Sir John Key’s propelled him into the National leadership and made him a winner with voters – the state house boy made good, a millionaire success story.
David Shearer’s back story was also too good for his colleagues in Labour to ignore – the former United Nations boss who stared down warlords and saved lives in some of the toughest war zones.
But it catapulted him into the leadership too soon and he was not cut out for a job that dwelt on the negatives rather than the positives.
Key had the political smarts to go with his back story; Shearer didn’t.
If Mitchell’s colleagues pick him, he is a leap into the unknown.
At this point in the race that’s unlikely anyway. But, as the Bill English-John Key era draws to a close, any new leader is a leap into the unknown. And, with a week yet to go, anything can happen.
On current soundings, former Cabinet minister Simon Bridges still seems to have the edge over his main rival, Amy Adams.
But if the contest was decided by public profile, Judith Collins would win hands down.
Depending on who you talk to, however, Collins’ support has shrunk within the caucus since the race began, even while it gathers momentum with the grassroots. Collins’ strategy is to talk over the top of the caucus and build pressure in her support from the ground up.
An email campaign in support of Collins’ candidacy appears to be snowballing – Collins says she has had MPs complain that they have been inundated with emails of support, though another MP claims the emails are auto-generated so it is hard to gauge.
A Collins candidacy is high voltage – and high risk.
As one MP noted, she might go nuclear on Jacinda Ardern, but she could just as easily go nuclear on her own caucus.
There is pressure on MPs to solidify around Bridges to present a unified front, a message that could resonate after the latest 1News poll showing Labour’s support soaring.
But while National’s support is holding up for now at 43 per cent, the loss of English draws a ring around the end of an era.
No matter who leads the party next, there will have to be change.
That could see other sacrifices made, including finance spokesman Steven Joyce.
Joyce is still weighing his own options, including a tilt at the leadership.
More likely he is weighing how he can use that as leverage as pressure builds for him to make way for new ideas after a decade in control of the party’s economic direction and strategy.
That’s just one of the backroom discussions taking place as MPs meet in closed offices and are wooed by phone and email.
But, getting through another testing week in the public blowtorch without making pratfalls or big blunders is going to be the bigger test.