The worst job in politics

National MPs are jostling for the party leadership at the very time when support for Labour has skyrocketed. Five ambitious politicians all hope to land ‘‘the worst job in politics’’ just as the Opposition seems destined for a long stint out of power.

This is curious.

Steven Joyce and the unknown Mark Mitchell are the latest to join the contest.

Politicians, of course, always embody the triumph of hope over experience, because otherwise they would have nothing to live for.

But both these late arrivals in the leadership contest must surely know, deep down, that the job they want is pure poison.

Joyce offers himself as a safe pair of hands, almost a re-run of the John Key and Bill English style of leadership which served National so well. This might be a plausible selling point if National was still coasting along on the wave that kept it in power for nine years.

But that wave is starting to break. The latest poll has Labour shooting up nine points to 48 per cent, with Jacinda Ardern up four to a massive 41 per cent as preferred prime minister. National, on the other hand, is in decline, down three points to 43 per cent.

None of the people wanting to replace Bill English has his standing or popular appeal.

Mitchell is standing on the strength of his back story, which combines derring-do in dangerous places with commercial success. But he is not an inspiring or even a very articulate politician. And a good back story says nothing about a politician’s prospects.

David Shearer also had a splendid back story, fighting for human rights and United Nations internationalism in the Third World. Yet Shearer was a truly hopeless leader of Labour, an accomplished man who as a politician was reduced to a desperate inarticulacy.

Mitchell says Shearer failed because his caucus was so divided, while National’s isn’t. That was only part of the problem. In fact, Shearer simply didn’t have the ability to inspire and lead his caucus.

And Mitchell assumes that National’s so-called unity is permanent. It’s most unlikely to be. As the polls favour the Government and bear down on National, the natural divisions within the caucus will widen.

One-term governments in New Zealand are rare, especially under MMP. The Labour governments of 1957-60 and 1972-75 occurred during periods of real economic strain, and both were under First Past the Post.

Under MMP, governments have been long-lasting and stable. New Zealand voters are prepared to give new governments time to prove themselves, so a second term is almost a given. A third will be harder fought, but is common enough.

National thought that as the largest single party its path to government in 2020 was somehow assured. It is not. Already Labour has replaced National as the party with the largest support.

The argument by National propagandists that Labour failed to get a post-election bounce has now been disproved. Labour’s bounce is huge.