Disaster readiness the new normality

For the second year in a row, the anniversary of the February 22 earthquake in Christchurch has been overshadowed by a contemporary disaster or extreme weather event. In 2017, some Port Hills residents were only just returning to their homes more than a week after fires swept across the hills and threatened the city.

In 2018, we prepared for the anniversary by battening down the hatches and expecting the worst from Cyclone Gita.

It has become a truism, even a cliche, to say that we live in a time of instability. In both cases you can picture a Christchurch City Council and mayor that may have been quietly gearing up for a solemn civic ceremony having its attention diverted to more pressing emergencies. Real life gets in the way of well-laid plans.

The big question is whether we are fully prepared for this new age of instability. Not just emotionally or psychologically prepared, but financially and logistically.

Are the right systems in place? Is the infrastructure up to it? Do the old models still work?

Are we getting better at recovering or are we used to a stressed state of hyper-vigilance and disaster readiness, with our charged phones and fresh water to hand?

Mayor Lianne Dalziel did well to get ahead of the cyclone and declare a state of emergency on Tuesday, showing the council has learned from the Port Hills fires.

The phrase ‘‘the new normal’’ was often heard after the 2011 earthquake. It became part of the vocabulary of resilience and described a stoic mindset.

It is unlikely that many people thought the new normal could also mean more frequent floods and destructive weather patterns.

It was said that 2017 was the year of the storm, with four months of rain falling on one day in Oamaru and Christchurch reaching its average yearly rainfall halfway through the month of August.

There is a connection between the warmer seas we have seen this summer and powerful storms.

The evidence of recent weeks, with Cyclone Fehi followed closely by Cyclone Gita, suggests that 2018 will be making a strong case to supersede 2017 as the year of the storm.

As such events become more common, private insurers may be reluctant to back New Zealand homeowners.

The Insurance Council said that 2017 was another record-setter, as the most expensive year for weatherrelated insurance claims in New Zealand.

The frustrations of roadworks have become another trying aspect of the new normal.

It will take another 20 years and $1 billion to get Christchurch’s roads back to the standard we expect. The city is a long work in progress.

Other questions emerge. Can an EQC model drained by earthquakes withstand increasing numbers of weather claims? Will local authorities be further stretched?

The council has already agreed to fast-track a $72 million programme to address the repeated flooding of the Heathcote River and will buy up to 35 houses that are at risk of flooding.

Nationally, a Ministry for the Environment report estimated that $19b of property is threatened by flooding and coastal erosion. It is not just our resilience that will be tested.