Who’s the next National leader?
It’s the toughest job in Parliament. Stacey Kirk looks at the people who want it.
It’s a tough job, but it’s still in demand. Who are the candidates vying to be the next National Party leader and leader of the Opposition, after Bill English resigned, and how would they steer the centre-right ship?
Simon Bridges
The economy: ‘‘I don’t think it’s about Left or Right, per se. I don’t think we did lurch to the Left as some have said. But we do need to keep ensuring we’ve got fresh ideas coming through, so that New Zealanders look twice at us or very seriously at us.’’ What voters like least about National: ‘‘I think there’s always a perception for Centre-Right governments that they’re possibly a bit flinty, that they haven’t opened up the chequebook enough.
‘‘But I think what’s also true about that is that they recognise that we are the best economic managers. But that’s been a perception in New Zealand for some time, it’s something we wouldn’t want to lose.’’
First priority as prime minister: ‘‘I think ultimately, it would be making sure that we are growing the pie; that we’ve got a strong economic direction. And the reason for that is very simple, it’s because everything else flows from that. I do, though, want to see a bit of a change of emphasis. I have some ideas I think, where we can continue to have New Zealanders looking at us differently as a National Party. I think they need to see our green credentials better. I think they also need to understand the strong work we’re capable of, that we’ve done and that we’ll continue to do in relation to small businesses and the provinces.’’ First priority as National leader:
‘‘I’ve got a very clear sense of a plan if I’m elected the leader. It will involve a reshuffle, that won’t be throwing out experience and heft that’s obviously important. But it will be also about blending that with new talent. I’ll also be looking to talk to New Zealanders about some subtle changes of direction, to ensure they are looking twice at the National Party and how we’re doing things.’’
Amy Adams
The economy: ‘‘I think our economic settings and policies are a core part of who we are, and sensible fiscal and economic management, growing the economy, creating jobs and opportunities – that’s what people expect of us. ‘‘We’re going to continue to show that, whoever the leader is.’’ What voters like least about National: ‘‘Sometimes I get a sense that they think we’re not talking about the things that matter to them. I think that we absolutely are
focused on the things that Kiwis care about, but it’s our job to make sure that they hear that from us.’’ First priority as prime minister:
‘‘My first priority as prime minister would be to make sure New Zealanders know they’ve got a Government that is not only competent and capable, but is absolutely there to make sure their lives and their opportunities [are] better.
I think that they need to see and hear that this will be a Government, where National is in power, that cares about their futures, cares about their opportunities and is going to make sure that they not only have opportunities, but that we are very careful with the money that they send up to Wellington and we spend it every bit as carefully as they would their own money.’’ First priority as National leader:
‘‘I think that the first things I’ll want to do as National leader is make sure as a team, we’re functioning well. Obviously, the leader is going to have to get the key positions in place around them, and then come in as a group, we come together and set a direction that we all buy into over the next three years.’’
Steven Joyce
The economy: ‘‘We could have a debate forever about whether National’s gone in a particular direction or not.
We’re a broad Centre-Right party, our job is to represent the nearly one-in-two New Zealanders who like our sorts of policies and our sort of approach – the reliance on individuals and families and giving them the chance to get ahead.’’ What voters like least about
National: ‘‘It’s a bit hard to say. It’s hard to have that sort of criticism, because actually they were pretty positive about us in the last election. Ultimately, the Government was appointed by Winston Peters. There’s always things to work on; no party or government is ever perfect. But the way you do that, is a laserlike focus on what New Zealanders are looking for from their Government.’’ First priority as prime minister:
‘‘My first priority if we became the Government in 2020 would be to make sure we’ve got the settings right to continue the progress that we’ve made in the past two years. And that would mean probably, depending on how far [Labour] get, undoing a few of the things the current Government plans to do over the next 21⁄2 years.’’ First priority as National leader:
First thing you have to do is get the team together, allocate responsibilities. Obviously, on the day there is a leader and deputy leader elected – allocate responsibilities, make sure we’re organised with staffing and so on, so you can hit the ground running as quickly as possible.
Mark Mitchell
The economy: ‘‘I believe we’re highly trusted by the country in terms of our economic management and we can be really proud of what we’ve achieved over the last nine years.
‘‘I won’t go into all the challenges we face as a country, they’re pretty well known.
And we delivered to the incoming Government a pretty strong set of books. Of course, now we’re a bit worried about what could happen.’’ What voters like least about
National: ‘‘We’re sort of seen as the party that ‘yep, very good economic managers and can deliver, and make sure that we’ve got a strong, healthy health system and education system, and law and order is good, and we’re safe and the community is fine’. But we have to have a kinder outward face for that as well.’’ First priority as prime minister:
‘‘First priority for a prime minister is first of all national security. So making sure your country is actually safe and as protected as you can be, whether it be global terrorism, whether it be a global financial shock, whether it be a massive change or movement in the markets. To make sure the country is in the best possible position to absorb
those shocks and continue to grow and provide opportunity and the lifestyle that we’re used to as Kiwis.’’ First priority as National leader:
‘‘We would definitely have an immediate plan to get back into government but there would be a lot of detail around that. And obviously it would involve some heavy lifting, and heavy grunt work with policy. We will have that ready. Not like this Government, that right now, is finding it hard to get their own bills and legislation into the House – they’re still using our legislation. We will actually be ready and prepared.’’
Judith Collins
The economy: ‘‘I think that we’re seen as being a little too far to the Left from our base. And it’s time for us to look at our policies and to, in my opinion, straighten up some of those.’’ What voters like least about
National: ‘‘I like to hope that voters like a lot about National. I think it’s very important for us, when we’re asking to be back in Government, to lead the next Government, that we’re very, very clear on our policies. I think it is very important to go into an election campaign with five or six main policies maximum.’’ First priority as prime minister:
‘‘We have a fabulous caucus, 56 of us, very committed, many of whom have had a taste of Government and are wondering when can we get there again.’’ First priority as National leader:
‘‘Training our MPs, helping them to understand the craft of working the House. But also having groups of MPs working together on particular policy areas and giving each of those MPs a chance to shine.’’
After the Kaiko¯ ura earthquake, the Press Gallery was relocated from its annexe behind the Beehive to a ground-floor corridor it shares with National MPs.
The carpet will be worn bare by the time National decides its new leader next week. The corridor houses a small number of senior MPs – including leadership hopeful Mark Mitchell – and the newly influential class of 2017, National’s first-term rookies.
The Press Gallery is in prime position now to watch the coming and going as the new MPs are courted by the leadership contenders.
The flurry of activity along that corridor on Thursday suggests this leadership race is far from a done deal.
Mitchell, Amy Adams, Simon Bridges and Judith Collins were all seen entering and exiting offices during the week. The only one not observed was Steven Joyce but we probably shouldn’t read too much into that. He might just be better at moving in the shadows.
Joyce’s numbers man, Nathan Guy, did visit, however – he was spotted heading purposefully towards the MPs’ end of the corridor on Thursday.
The wheeling and dealing will continue through the weekend as the rivals work the phones and hold meetings to gather pledges of support.
With five contenders in the race, doing the numbers is a mug’s game and it depends on who you talk to. But here we go.
Some say it’s neck and neck between Bridges, Joyce and Adams. Soundings among at least two camps put Joyce’s numbers much lower, however. And soundings among Bridges’ camp suggest a level of confidence that he has the bulk of votes behind him, though no-one has enough to win a first-round ballot.
The only common thread is that Collins has no chance but she is having the time of her life and is assured of a spot on the front bench, no matter who wins.
Collins is, however, winning the public vote, according to a Spinoff-UMR poll, closely followed by Joyce.
That may weigh heavily with some MPs, in particular in relation to Joyce’s candidacy. But it probably just proves the point behind National not polling the question itself, though it seems the party toyed with the idea.
Joyce and Collins are ahead with the public because they have name recognition, which might be helpful if the election was next week but probably doesn’t mean much three years out.
But, in their favour, both are also strongly identified with brand National.
That’s what will be giving MPs pause for thought about Joyce.
Usually, a strong brand association is a negative when a party is looking to change its leader after three terms in government.
But brand National is still a positive with more than 40 per cent of voters. So while some of the backbenchers are eager for change, they also have to be careful not to throw the baby out with the bath water.
Joyce has the brain power and experience to make the transition to leader. He is also the obvious foil to Jacinda Ardern.
He and Collins, in particular, would be a formidable team. And, if Joyce unleashed some of his wit and charm, he might even be able to soften his image with the public.
But their main purpose would be to act as a wrecking ball against Labour’s front bench.
Joyce is also a legendary micromanager who has wielded immense power over the caucus for the past decade; there is no aspect of the party’s economic policy or strategy that he hasn’t had a hand in.
There is an acknowledgement that, like Collins, he is an essential part of any future lineup. But whether he is capable of moving aside to make room for the next generation is arguable.
A Joyce-led National Party rests on the assumption that 2020 would be a return to normal transition after a brief interruption.
Bridges’ candidacy, however, accepts that voters will be looking for generational change in National by 2020. Of all the candidates, he has been the most overt about Joyce needing to relinquish control.
That may be what is making some of the old guard nervous and giving Joyce’s campaign some legs.
But this vote is almost more about style over substance, and strategy over ideology. Because National is not yet at the ideological crossroads where it must choose between shoring up the base and wooing voters in the centre. The base never left and the soft centre is still there, though the latest 1 News poll suggests a few are flaking off.
Collins might sound flintier than her rivals, but even she is not advocating a massive lurch away from core National policy. Her plans for the Resource Management Act, for instance, are probably not much more radical than National would have pushed through in its third term if it hadn’t been hamstrung by its reliance on the Ma¯ ori Party.
Bridges, meanwhile, is more centrist than Collins and has pushed the ‘‘green-ification’’ of National – but that is as much a strategic ploy, to make a deal with the Greens in 2020 look more credible than it did this time around, when Bill English extended an 11th hour olive branch to the minor party.
And that is what this contest really boils down to.
National has already lost its position as the most popular party in Parliament under the latest poll. Which means its strategy at successive elections of relying on having almost enough votes to govern alone is already undermined.
Whoever wins on Tuesday is going to have to promise to colleagues that he or she has a path to winning. That means either growing National’s vote to about 47 per cent again, which means going nuclear on NZ First and turning 2020 into a first past the post-style election, or the winner has to promise he or she can do better at MMP and get a deal across the line next time.
And, like the last election, the two may be mutually exclusive.
But both strategies are being played out fiercely behind the scenes.
So whoever wins on Tuesday should not expect to get a very long rope from colleagues.
UP Steven Joyce:
The party’s finance spokesman and uber strategist made it a crowded field after throwing his hat in to the ring for the National Party leadership race.
The NZ First leader cheekily announced he had been reelected leader of the party at a caucus meeting this week. That must have been the shortest conversation in history.
Winston Peters: Shane Jones:
The regional development minister launched NZ First’s election fightback plan by splashing the cash around underfunded regions at the launch of a $3 billion infrastructure fund in Gisborne. It’s called pork barrel politics because it works.
DOWN Ron Mark:
The defence minister and NZ First deputy looks likely to be rolled when the party opens up the deputy leadership next week. Barbara Kuriger: The National MP has been in the spotlight over her husband and son facing animal cruelty charges.
Internal Affairs:
Its officials are in the gun after an overpayment bungle involving Winston Peters and Jacinda Ardern.
IN THE LINE OF DUTY
A sudden call went out on Wednesday for a journalist to fill the pool spot on a helicopter with the Civil Defence minister and officials to visit areas affected by ex-Cyclone Gita. Stuff’s answered the call of duty and had just enough time to ditch the high heels, change into her gym clothes and swallow a couple of Sea Legs tablets before boarding the chopper. It turned into a nine-hour marathon through some horrendous weather but Moir kept filing throughout – sending constant updates, including video and photographs, to keep the live blogs up to date. It was only after Moir landed that we found out she’d had an iPhone in one hand and a paper bag in the other while she filed between bouts of severe air sickness.
National is not yet at the ideological crossroads where it must choose between shoring up the base and wooing voters in the centre.
Jo Moir