New Zealand owes a debt to English
Bill English most certainly does not represent ‘‘generational change’’, the buzzword currently sweeping New Zealand politics.
When he conceded late in 2017 that he did not know what Secret Santa was, no one who had encountered him up close should have been remotely surprised.
Despite having six children, the former prime minister never seemed au fait with the trends of youth. He seems much older than his 56 years.
Not only was he not part of the Tinder generation, but in the weeks leading up to the 2014 election, he did not even know what it was.
This alone meant English would struggle as prime minister, compared with either John Key or Jacinda Ardern.
But English, who delivers his valedictory speech in Parliament today, after 27 years as an MP, will be missed by the generation that is now assuming control of Parliament.
His contribution to New Zealand politics, especially over the past decade, has left the country far from perfect, but in a position many other countries would envy.
Key took the public credit (and fire) for the performance of the last government, while English did much of the grunt work.
It was not clear when National took office that the economy would be in the state it is in now.
When English became finance minister in 2008, the New Zealand economy was entering a recession, Treasury was forecasting deficits stretching long into the future and tens of thousands of Kiwis were heading overseas each year.
All that came before a series of major earthquakes, the most significant of which was not only deadly and traumatic, but had one of the largest financial impacts of any disaster in an advanced economy, in relative terms.
Back then, financial markets were causing havoc because of the concerns created by sovereign debt. But the government promised ratings agencies that it would not let debt climb as far as people expected it would, and downgrades were avoided.
Although it took years for the global economy to emerge properly from what is now being called the Great Recession, New Zealand did not suffer anything like the impacts seen in other countries.
Unemployment did not even reach 7 per cent. Benefits were in large part maintained.
Despite running the largest Budget deficit in the country’s history in the year of the 2011 Christchurch earthquake, New Zealand’s government debt levels are still low, something the new Labour-led Government has belatedly acknowledged.
Opposition leaders in New Zealand used to stand in stadiums to demonstrate the numbers leaving for Australia each year.
Now the number heading across the Tasman is exceeded by those coming the other way (just), partly because many Kiwis are coming home, but also because, for the first time in a generation, thousands of Australians a year are choosing to live here.
There is not a stadium in the country which can come close to holding the annual gain to the population from migration, and yet unemployment is still dropping.
On the flipside of booming migration, which English described as a ‘‘problem of success’’, are major downsides.
Population gains have flattered economic growth figures, public resources have been stretched and the availability of migrant workers has probably suppressed wages, meaning many working New Zealanders may not be sharing the spoils of the economic recovery in a way they might otherwise have.
The former National government’s economic legacy may be largely defined by its failure to either anticipate or address what would happen to a housing market with constrained supply, booming population growth and low interest rates.
A cynic might argue it was a good time to lose power to an inexperienced Government which did not anticipate finding itself in the saddle but now needs to deal with the housing affordability crisis in many parts of the country.
But what seemed to be lost on National’s opponents for so long is that for all of the concerns about growing inequality and other social problems in New Zealand, the last government remained popular for so long because most Kiwis were positive about their financial position.
The new Labour-led Government continues to enjoy the spoils of this.
Even as business confidence plunged when the Labour-led coalition was formed, Kiwis households remained confident. This fact alone is likely to see business confidence return.
Now, though, English is stepping aside, effectively pushed, as colleagues began to discuss the need for change.
It never seemed likely that he would be the man to return National to power, but just as unlikely is the chance that the party, or Parliament, will be better off without him.