Make the case
Simon Bridges passed his first month in the job last week. That’s a milestone worth celebrating in these fast-moving times. Another month or so and he’ll equal Jacinda Ardern’s time as Opposition leader.
Bridges has enjoyed nothing like the giddy surge of popularity that marked Ardern’s first days in the job. But he has made a better than decent fist of it so far. He’s picked his battles. He’s taken his wins where he can get them. He’s worked hard to get up to speed across every portfolio. He’s even got shades of the everyman charisma that worked for Sir John Key. And he’s been luckier than most new Opposition leaders.
Far from taking over a beaten and demoralised team, he’s inherited a formidable machine that’s carried on from government without breaking stride. This is the most determined opposition we’ve seen in a long while.
I was asked recently if Bridges was still going to be National leader at the next election and I said no. But I’m prepared to admit here that I may have been wrong. He’s got what it takes to lead National to an election victory, particularly against a government that is making such heavy weather of things at the moment.
Except the odds of Bridges winning are no better now than when he took over the leadership, even up against a government that seems to be making heavy weather of everything at the moment.
It’s not just Ardern that Bridges has to beat. He has to beat MMP.
That means finding an ally in either NZ First or the Greens. The odds on that are steep to implausible. Alternatively, Bridges will have to lead National to an all-out majority so it can govern alone. Even Key and Helen Clark never managed that – and they were both hugely popular leaders.
So it’s going to take more than a couple of bad weeks for Labour in Government before National can put all its eggs in that basket.
But Labour can hardly rest on its laurels. Horror weeks can turn into horror years if the lessons aren’t learnt. And the mistakes of the last month should serve as a warning to Labour that it needs to up its game. Here are five things it needs to do to get back on track:
The Middlemore hospital crisis is the face of years of underfunding under National as Labour realises it needs to pour tens of millions of dollars into fixing toxic mold and decaying timber at one of the country’s biggest hospitals.
Ardern has suggested Middlemore is just the tip of the iceberg and the scale of problems inherited by Labour after years of belt-tightening is even worse than expected.
Expect Labour to roll out more examples like Middlemore between now and the May Budget.
It has to make the case for significantly more spending in those areas and make the narrative about ‘‘a decade of neglect’’ under National more than just a clever soundbite.
Otherwise National’s brand for stronger leadership and economic management will continue to dog Ardern.
Find an enforcer
Ardern’s strengths include her warmth and relationship-building skills. That’s how Labour got the deal with NZ First across the line.
But she is lacking a ‘‘bad cop’’ to her ‘‘good cop’’. Clark could do good cop and bad cop simultaneously, but she also leant on the likes of Sir Michael Cullen, Annette King or her chief of staff, Heather Simpson, to deliver a dressing down when required.
Despite his affable exterior Key could also be the bad cop and his dressings down were legendary. But Key also had Steven Joyce, whose leadership ambitions ran up hard against the fact that he had slapped down too many of his colleagues to expect their support.
Labour is missing King, who would have fulfilled a similar role, and none of Ardern’s ministers have stepped up to fill the vacuum. They are too wrapped up in their portfolios and the thrill of being back in power.
But their first priority should be too protect Ardern.
And that means reining in NZ First and pulling weak ministers into line.
Less Woman’s Day, more of The Economist
National is envious of Ardern’s soft media reach – she and partner Clark Gayford are everywhere on the women’s magazine stands, and in social media.