‘Groundhog Day’

Leading South African rugby writer Mark Keohane is tipping a Crusaders romp in tomorrow’s Super Rugby final and expects the Lions to experience ‘‘Groundhog Day’’ after losing the competition’s last two deciders against Kiwi sides.

The Lions are massive underdogs for the final after beating the Jaguares and Waratahs at Ellis Park en route to facing the Crusaders in Christchurch.

Lions coach Swys de Bruin has spoke of believing in ‘‘miracles’’ ahead of their third successive final, having lost the previous two against the Hurricanes and Crusaders in Wellington and Johannesburg respectively, but Keohane has unequivocally dismissed their chances of causing an upset.

‘‘There will be no miracle win for the Lions in Christchurch,’’ he wrote for Sport 24.

"They’ll lose by 20 points – and it’s not because they’re a poor side. It’s a combination of the quality of who they will play and the absolute madness of a competition format that effectively gives a team travelling overseas just three days to prepare for a final.

‘‘The only hope for the Lions is the Crusaders lose a player or two on the way out of the tunnel.’’

The Lions arrived in Christchurch late on Tuesday night and have adopted a ‘less is more’ approach for the final in heading to New Zealand from South Africa later than normal.

Keohane looked back to 2016, when the Lions faced the Hurricanes in a Wellington decider, and said ‘‘travel undid them, as did the class of the Hurricanes.’’

He added: ‘‘It will be Groundhog Day in Christchurch – and that’s not being disrespectful to the Lions. It’s about dealing in realism.’’

Keohane said the Crusaders, who have never lost a game at home in the play-offs, were currently the best team in the world.

In the 2012 final, the Chiefs hosted the Sharks in Hamilton and Keohane dismissed their chances before departing for New Zealand, saying this year’s final will mirror that occasion.

‘‘The Sharks coaching staff and players were as buoyant when they got on the plane. They felt a miracle was possible,’’ he went on. ‘‘They argued they had momentum. I wrote they would take 30 points because no team could do that kind of playoff travel schedule and beat a team of the Chiefs’ quality when they had been sleeping in their own beds while the Sharks clocked more air miles in a fortnight than most do in a lifetime.

‘‘I was told I was unpatriotic, negative and that I would be the one embarrassed at my 30-point call. The Chiefs won 37-6.

‘‘They led 13-3 at halftime and the Sharks gave it everything in those first 40 minutes. Then the travel, the quality of the opposition and home ground advantage all kicked in for the onesided Kiwi romp. I expect a similar kind of final in Christchurch.’’

‘‘The only hope for the Lions is the Crusaders lose a player or two on the way out of the tunnel.’’

Mark Keohane, South African rugby writer