City ‘heading for transport failure’

Christchurch’s reliance on private cars will result in a ‘‘failing transport system’’.

That’s the verdict of Canterbury authorities, including councils and Environment Canterbury, as they work out detailed costs and timeframes for improving bus services and map mass transit routes to the north and west of the city.

Their business case works on quadrupling public transport usage by 2048.

It’s estimated at least $800,000, and up to $4 million, will be needed to do the planning work, with the costs split between local government and the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA).

The report, which will go to the NZTA board to consider in early 2019, estimates the proposed changes would have a whole-oflife cost of $1.33 billion.

It said the current reliance on private cars was not sustainable and ‘‘will result in a failing transport system’’ that will be unable to cope with projected population increases, making a shift to alternative transport ‘‘essential’’. Currently, 83 per cent of people in Greater Christchurch drive to work.

Population in Greater Christchurch is expected to increase by 158,000 to 640,000 in the next 30 years, especially within 10 kilometres of the CBD.

‘‘Unless steps are taken to invest in alternative modes and reduce reliance on private vehicles, increased travel demand during the next 10 years and beyond will exacerbate peak-time congestion and generate significant impacts on the environment, health, and safety,’’ the business case said.

Christchurch had a ‘‘unique opportunity to plan for [a] public transport system that matches future growth’’.

‘‘Now is the opportunity for investment in public transport while the city is rebuilding, to shape the rebuild and before opportunities to use space for public transport is taken up with other development.’’

The project aims to more than double public transport usage from 2.25 per cent of the population to 5 per cent by the late 2020s, and quadruple by 2048.

If transport usage got to 5 per cent, it would bring $1.4b of benefits, the business case found.

The business case matches the Regional Public Transport Plan, approved last week, which calls for sweeping changes to the public transport system.

Transport planning agency ViaStrada’s director Axel Wilke said it was a good time to think about public transport funding but thinking about transport corridors a few years ago would have been even better. He said Canterbury was already behind Auckland and Wellington in terms of asking the Government for public transport funding.

People were complaining Labour were not keeping their public transport election promises but they did not understand how public transport funding worked, Wilke said.

He said the government money which was sitting there but had not been requested by Christchurch.

Councillor Sara Templeton said it was important Christchurch got ‘‘ahead of the game’’ on public transport. While many people chose or needed to drive, there were a lot of people now wanting a different choice.

‘‘Now is the opportunity . . . while the city is rebuilding.’’