Incumbency gives big edge to Dalziel in race

As the headlong rush into the silly season beckons, Christchurch’s Mayor has finally declared her intentions to seek reelection for a third term. Friends, colleagues and the local media have been well aware Lianne Dalziel suspended her mayoralty deliberations when her husband’s health challenges first emerged in June, until a clearer picture emerged on his prognosis.

I’m so pleased the picture for Rob Davidson is so much brighter now than it initially appeared in the depths of winter.

Dalziel’s declared desire to seek a third term has certainly popped a few ambitious balloons within the People’s Choice camp. Deputy mayor Andrew Turner has never concealed his designs on the top job. In an extraordinary display of unrestrained over-enthusiasm, when he was asked on radio in September whether the mayoralty held any interest, he launched into a feverish two-minute monologue on why he would be such a great mayor for Christchurch.

Those pent-up passions will have to be rebottled and kept on ice for a few more years now. Similarly, Cr Glenn Livingstone’s mayoralty ambitions will now go into abeyance, because any challenge to Dalziel’s crown will certainly not come from the centre-left and her People’s Choice comrades.

Although the far left, headlined by John Minto, may well decide to launch another misguided tilt at the mayoralty.

But what about the centre-right?

Unlike the People’s Choice grouping, which we all know is just Labour and Greens by another name, the centre-right does not target local government for political conquest with the same degree of fervour. The Independent Citizens grouping is a far more informal, free-wheeling entity than the cloth-caps and group-think of People’s Choice.

Cr Jamie Gough strikes me as a potentially viable centre-right mayoral contender, at some point in time. But with a young family to consider,

2019 may well be premature. Speculation continues to swirl over Nicky Wagner’s ambitions. She seems wracked by selfdoubt on whether having a crack at the mayoralty is really for her. Neither Gough nor Wagner have genuinely flashed any real fire in the belly for the job, yet. If Wagner is seeking green pastures beyond Parliament, I wouldn’t rule her out seeking election to Environment Canterbury. She’s been there before and the regional council has long been a depository for retired parliamentarians.

Purely from a media perspective, the ultimate gladiatorial scenario would be for Gerry Brownlee to challenge Lianne Dalziel for the mayoralty. Gerry won’t. What any serious mayoral challenger will be mindful of is history’s bleak marker. Christchurch has not voted out a sitting mayor for

44 years. The last time an incumbent was ousted from office was Neville Pickering, in 1974. Hay, Buck, Moore and Parker were never defeated in office, all opting to pull the pin themselves. The power of incumbency gives Dalziel a colossal head start.

Beyond the mayoralty, it’s the council wards that are riper for the picking. Whether it’s the perceived anti-car mentality, the failure to bend the arc on rates, the obstinate refusal by some councillors to support partial sell-downs on assets, or the profligacy on pet projects, there are flashpoints galore that savvy council candidates could capitalise on to dislodge the ideologues.

As I presaged in last week’s column, the full horror on the Town Hall’s project creep has now been laid bare. Not only is the completion date pushed out to August, but the original repair cost has now blown out by 48 per cent. Despite all of the reassurances about contingency funding and cost certainty being enshrined in the contracts, the ratepayer has been played like a fiddle.

And don’t you love how council staff downplay the latest $15 million cost overrun, claiming it can be funded from existing capital budgets without affecting rates. There always seems to be superfluous money conveniently sloshing around on spreadsheets, when a blowout strikes.

But just like the negligence that resulted in chlorine being added to our water supply, council staff eschew any semblance of real accountability. May the promise of an election year help usher in meaningful culture change.

Purely from a media perspective, the ultimate gladiatorial scenario would be for Gerry Brownlee to challenge Lianne Dalziel for the mayoralty.

DAVID WALKER/STUFF Christchurch Mayor Lianne Dalziel has confirmed she plans to stand for a third term in the role next year, after a clearer picture of her husband’s health emerged.