Problematic Census data may mean M¯aori lose seat

Ma¯ori risk losing an electorate seat and more than 20 new iwi won’t be properly counted because of problematic Census

2018 data.

Results from the beleaguered national survey, which failed to count one in 10 New Zealanders, have been repeatedly delayed, with a release date not known one year on from census day.

The population data is vital for Ma¯ ori, and academics hold fears vulnerable communities and small iwi will be adversely affected.

Dr Tahu Kukutai and Donna Cormack, in a paper published last week, said Ma¯ori census response rates would be well below 90 per cent, possibly as low as 80 or 70 per cent in areas such as Northland and the East Coast.

Ma¯ori are less likely to be counted in the census than nonMa¯ ori, with a 6.1 per cent Ma¯ ori under count in 2013 compared to that of 1.9 per cent for Europeans.

A change in the ‘‘yes’’ or ‘‘no’’ answer to a question of Ma¯ori descent, which could no longer be answered with ‘‘don’t know’’ in

2018, was expected to lead to fewer reporting Ma¯ ori descent.

That, combined with a higher number of Ma¯ori not being counted during the census and its follow-up, could shrink the number of Ma¯ ori voters and the number of Ma¯ ori electorates.

Of the 100-plus iwi and related groups counted by Stats NZ, more than 20 were first included in 2016-17. These new iwi groups have not previously been counted, and attempts to patch census results were ‘‘unlikely to be a robust solution for addressing missing iwi information’’.

University of Auckland statistician Andrew Sporle, a founding member of Te Mana Rauranga – Ma¯ ori data sovereignty network, said census data was particularly important for smaller iwi trying to do good with fewer resources. ‘‘They are now short on one very key piece of information, which is the demographic of their population. There is a risk we could lose an electorate seat. The complicated part is going to be the shape of the electorates.’’

Stats NZ census general manager Kathy Connolly said the Census 2018 data set had progressed significantly since November, and 2013 Census data and administrative data was improving the count for ethnicity and Ma¯ori descent. ‘‘While we recognise that non-response to the census typically impacts some population groups more than others, we have developed new methods to offset the decline in responses.’’