Could ABs’ loss sink Labour?
The All Blacks lost to England – totally outthought and out-played. One question is: will this result crystallise the views people hold about the direction of the country, or can it change minds?
Or put more bluntly: is it true that the All Blacks losing a World Cup means the end of a government?
There has been some research done on this, most notably by Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr in 1996 when he was a merely a jobbing National Bank economist.
When interviewed by The Listener in 2007, Orr said that ‘‘this is stretching my memory way back. I think that the results showed that incumbent governments generally were favoured by happy people – and happiness was strongly related to All Black victories.’’
Orr also pointed up that this was ‘‘a spurious correlation,’’ as opposed to real research. But it is fun spurious correlation, so here goes for an update.
The bad news for the Government is that in each election following a World Cup since 1987 – with one exception – the major party presiding over an election has seen its result go in the same direction as the All Blacks. A victory means a higher percentage, a defeat a lower one. The good news for the Government is that the exception to that rule was 2017. Despite the All Blacks winning in 2015, the Bill English-led National Party saw its share of the party vote fall from a bit over 47 per cent to just under 45 per cent.
This could mean any number of things of course: that National was never going to be able to sustain 47 per cent, that Kiwis – happy after a consecutive All Black wins – turned their minds to other things, or that World Cup victories were lessening in importance in the public’s mind. Or, it could mean nothing: the All Blacks win rate is entirely coincidental to the political fortunes of parties.
Starting back in 1987, a triumphant David Kirk lifted the World Cup. Two months later the fourth Labour government, led by David Lange and Roger Douglas, increased Labour’s share of the vote to 48 per cent – or 57 out of 97 seats in the old first-past-the-post Parliament. That was in spite – or because – of radically liberalising economic reforms, coupled with a dovish foreign policy that tore down the old fortress New Zealand and made New Zealand nuclear-free.
National won the subsequent election out of World Cup cycle.
The All Blacks were knocked out of the 1991 World Cup by the Wallabies in a Lansdowne Road semi-final. The following 1993 election saw National’s share of the vote slashed from 47.8 per cent to 35.5 per cent, giving it a razor-thin majority in the house. Winston Peters, who effectively said he wanted a return to the good old-fashioned ‘beer, rugby and racing’ New Zealand that existed before Rogernomics and Ruthanaisa, saw his new party NZ First emerge as a political force, nabbing over 8 per cent of the vote. The Alliance (remember them?) got a whopping 18 per cent of the vote but only two seats in Parliament.
In 1995 Jonah Lomu emerged and rugby was about to turn professional. A new All Blacks side playing a stylish new brand of rugby, lost to the Springboks in the final in Johannesburg.
The following year – the first MMP election – National saw its share of the vote further reduced further to 33.7 per cent, as did Labour. In the same election NZ First shot up to 13.5 per cent of the vote, while the Alliance scored a bit above 10 per cent.
In 1999 the All Blacks blew a lead over France in the semifinal about a month before the election. Labour won that election as National’s share of the vote dipped again to 30.5 per cent. NZ First – which had been part of that government – also saw its vote share fall. Labour’s jumped up almost 10 points to
38.7 per cent, while the then new Greens saw a big swing to them of 5.1 per cent.
2002 was an out-of-World Cup cycle election and Helen Clark once again increased her share of the vote to over 41.3 per cent. NZ First, the Greens and United Future also lifted theirs.
The 2005 election was notable for the rise of Don Brash, and race relations as a totemic issue. The All Blacks had also lost the
2003 World Cup, being knocked out by Australia under the illfated reign of coach John Mitchell (now England’s defensive coach). Labour’s vote slipped back slightly, while National’s rose over 18 percentage points.
The 2008 election took place after the insipid 2007 quarterfinals loss by the All Blacks to France. Labour’s primary vote again dipped by a bit over 7 points. NZ First, which was also in government, got booted out completely; the Nats and ACT went up and the Government changed. That was of course in the middle of the global financial crisis.
‘‘I think that the results showed that incumbent governments generally were favoured by happy people.’’
Adrian Orr
The 2011 election took place a month after Richie McCaw lifted the William Webb Ellis Cup. John Key won his highest ever share of the vote: 47.3 per cent. Enough said.
The 2014 took place out of World Cup cycle, National’s vote dropped by 0.16 per cent.
2017 was two years after the All Blacks won the 2015 World Cup. Bill English broke the trend of a higher vote after a World Cup victory, nabbing only 44.4 per cent. Although in fairness to English he wasn’t actually PM when the World Cup was won. Labour massively broke the mould: winning an 11.7 point increase in votes from opposition. It is the only time an Opposition has increased its vote while the previous government has presided over a World Cup win.
So will all this mean anything for the Government? As Orr said, the correlation is totally spurious. But there is one consistent point: No major party in government that has held an election after the All Blacks got knocked out of the World Cup during its term has ever increased its share of the vote. Politics, like sport has its superstitious hoodoos. The prime minister and Labour will be keen to break this one.