It’s no done deal for Luxon

In June, some months before Christopher Luxon confirmed he would be seeking the National Party nomination for the Botany electorate in next year’s general election, the New Zealand Herald ran a surprising advertisement featuring the face of former prime minister John Key morphing into that of Luxon, who at that point was still ‘‘the outgoing Air New Zealand chief executive’’.

Significantly, the metamorphosis didn’t include the faces of either Bill English or current party leader Simon Bridges. The transition was depicted as one directly from Key to Luxon, and featured the hashtags #Luxon2020 and #National2020.

Coming at a time when the 49-year-old had started to be mentioned as a possible future party leader, after his resignation from Air NZ, the ad certainly tapped into an existing narrative. Presumptuous in the extreme, it was indicative perhaps of wishful thinking on the part of some in the party’s nonparliamentary wing pining for the Key years.

Of course, National quickly moved to distance itself from the advertisement, with Christchurchbased businessman Steve Brooks, once the country’s youngest estate agent, later revealed as its backer. But discussion about Luxon’s future in the party has continued unabated, though Bridges has been front and centre in the last couple of weeks as the party has rolled out its Social Services Discussion Document.

To be fair, Luxon certainly hasn’t stoked the speculation about how far his political ambitions might take him. When his selection was announced on Monday night, he made all the noises expected from someone swinging right in behind a party’s combined effort. ‘‘I feel like I’m off to high school for the first time. For me, it’s about making sure I deliver for the people of Botany.’’ Whom he won’t actually represent until next year’s election at the earliest.

‘‘We’ve got a job to do to make Simon Bridges the prime minister of New Zealand,’’ he said, though he wouldn’t rule out a future run for the leadership. To some degree that taps into another narrative, that the party – facing the same climb back to power that Labour eyeballed after Helen Clark’s exit – isn’t going to risk burning a good potential prime minister, with all due respect to Bridges, on a failed election campaign in 2020, but is looking to position itself for 2023.

Of course, an endorsement from Key, whom he described on Monday night as the ‘‘greatest prime minister we ever had’’, will do nothing to hurt Luxon’s ambitions. Last month Key said Luxon would be a ‘‘world-class candidate’’, and described his presence among the pool of hopefuls as ‘‘direct proof that a strong and effective opposition like National is a magnet for talent’’.

Realistically, though, there is a long way to go for Luxon, whose clearest similarity to Key seems to be his business pedigree, an attribute that makes him prime party material. Monday night gave the clearest indication of his conservative views on a number of social issues. An evangelical Christian, he said he was personally against reform of abortion or euthanasia law, and opposed to the legalisation of cannabis for recreational use.

There are Christians and other social conservatives in Parliament, but just how the idea of Luxon as leader, and potentially prime minister, would play with the party faithful and the voting public remains to be seen.

Until he’s actually in Parliament, and Kiwis have seen him in action, nothing is a done deal.

Realistically, though, there is a long way to go for Luxon ...