Change is inevitable

Tom Latham is a big call but would allow them to play a more attacking spinner (Santner bowled 41 wicketless overs in Perth, in more spin-friendly conditions than are likely in Melbourne), and four pacemen plus Colin de Grandhomme in their bid to snare 20 wickets.

Neil Wagner (60 overs, 7-151) and Tim Southee (51.3 overs, 9-162) were outstanding in the Perth sauna a bowler down, and the extra paceman might be insurance, too, given the toll those punishing spells may have taken.

MCG ground staff will likely go safety first after a Sheffield Shield match on a different dropin was abandoned for safety reasons this month. It means a flat one, likely to offer less steep bounce than Optus Stadium, which provides some small comfort for the New Zealanders.

Two years ago the pitch was rated ‘poor’ by the ICC after 24 wickets fell in five days against England.

Last year India scored 443-7 declared batting first and hammered Australia (without suspended duo Steve Smith and David Warner) by 137 runs as fast bowler Jasprit Bumrah took nine wickets and spinner Ravi Jadeja five.

The Black Caps will hope it’s warm and still in Melbourne and the ball swings for Boult and Southee. They have nine days to dust themselves off, play a twoday match against a Victoria XI on Friday and Sunday, then grit their teeth and try to grab the ascendancy they never had in Perth.

It’s not a hopeless cause, because this is a good New Zealand team, but they need a stroke of luck and to ensure there’s no psychological or physical damage from the far west. And, pick the right XI.