2019: Did we predict it?
Every year our political reporters try to guess what might happen in the next year. Here’s our score for 2019.
Hindsight may be 20/20, but predicting things is much more fun. On January 1 this year, the Stuff political team released our predictions for 2019 – as we will tomorrow for 2020.
But before we get to that, we need some accountability for our prior predictions, several of which were wrong.
Here are all 20 of our predictions for the past year, with a score from 0 to 10 on accuracy. These scores have been independently audited by another press gallery reporter who doesn’t work for Stuff.
Spoiler alert: We didn’t do well.
Prediction:
We predicted that Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern would not have another child but some other parliamentary babies might eventuate.
Outcome:
To the best of our knowledge, no baby sister or brother is on the way for Neve, and there have been a few parliamentary children. National MP Simeon Brown and Labour MP Tamati Coffey both had kids this year, so we’re giving ourselves full grades: .............. 10/10
Prediction:
We predicted Simon Bridges wouldn’t make the distance as leader this year and would be replaced by Judith Collins.
Outcome:
Utterly wrong. Not only is Bridges leader, he also managed to put Collins back in her box somewhat after forcing the issue earlier this year . ...................... 0/10
Prediction:
We predicted David Seymour’s Euthanasia bill would pass but would be subject to a referendum.
Outcome:
This is exactly what happened. (To be fair, this wasn’t hard to pick when looking at the earlier voting numbers.).. ................................................................................... 10/10
Prediction:
We predicted a Cabinet reshuffle would see the promotion of Kris Faafoi . . . and Ruth Dyson and Deborah Russell.
Outcome:
We were right on Faafoi but wrong with Dyson – she’s, in fact, retiring at the next election. Russell was promoted but not into Cabinet. We’ll give ourselves .. 4/10.
Prediction:
We predicted NZ First’s Shane Jones would spend a lot of time and money in Northland in preparation for running in the seat next year.
Outcome:
Jones has certainly spent plenty of time and a fair whack of provincial growth fund money up north, with 15 separate announcements by our count. As to whether he will run in the seat? Still hard to tell, so we give ourselves ... 8/10.
Prediction:
We predicted a bullying inquiry led by Debbie Francis would find a widespread culture of bullying in Parliament and herald a beef-up of the rules.
Outcome:
Right on the money. A new code of conduct is currently being developed after the review found that ‘‘bullying and harassment are systematic in the parliamentary workplace’’ . ................. 10/10
Prediction:
We predicted that Ardern would be forced to sack another minister due to an ethical scandal.
Outcome:
Wrong! While Faafoi had a bit of a lapse recently, and questions of probity have haunted Jones, neither has left their role . ......................................................................... 0/10
Prediction:
We predicted that a backbench government MP would have their wings clipped due to an ethical scandal.
Outcome:
While this may well have happened behind closed doors, nothing that has been in print matches this . ................... 0/10
Prediction:
We predicted that the Karel Sroubek deportation drama would continue after summer.
Outcome:
There were more stories, but not quite the torrent that there was in 2018: ..5/10
Prediction:
We predicted that resignations from National’s old guard would continue, with at least one surprise, seeing the promotion of both Nicola Willis and Chris Bishop. Unfortunately, we predicted at least one of the resignations would cause a by-election.
Outcome:
Several National MPs announced their upcoming resignations – including the surprise one of Amy Adams. Chris Bishop and Nicola Willis have both been promoted. But no luck on the byelection – too specific . ............................... 7/10
Prediction:
We foresaw National using the wakajumping bill to boot Jami-Lee Ross from Parliament as he continued to attack the party after coming back to Parliament.
Outcome:
While Ross did continue to attack the National Party, the waka-jumping bill was not used . .................................................. 0/10
Prediction:
We predicted that the Government would park its abortion law reform for fear of alienating socially conservative Labour voters.
Outcome:
No, not at all. A bill was introduced and has passed its first reading . .................. 0/10
Prediction:
We predicted that that a majority of the tax working group would suggest a capital gains tax but the campaign against it would grow to such a feverpitch that meaningful tax reform would be abandoned by Labour.
Outcome:
If only we could give ourselves more than 10 points to make up for all those bung predictions above – this one is bang on: ............................................................ 10/10
Prediction:
We decided there would not be 1000 KiwiBuild homes by the Government’s deadline of July 1 and things wouldn’t really improve by the end of the year.
Outcome:
There were nowhere near 1000 KiwiBuild houses in July and there aren’t that many more now . .............. 10/10
Prediction:
We predicted that Green co-leader Marama Davidson would adopt a soapbox cause that would have James Shaw carrying out damage control.
Outcome:
Nope . ..................................................................... 0/10
Prediction:
We thought that the Greens would find success with the Zero Carbon Bill but would end the year on around 6 per cent in the polls.
Outcome:
In the last Colmar Brunton poll, the Greens were on 7 per cent, a slight rise. Close but not quite: ................................... 6/10.
Prediction:
We said two new political parties would emerge – a blue-green one led by Vernon Tava and a new party targeting the Christian vote, with the euthanasia, cannabis, and abortion debates acting as catalysts.
Outcome:
Vernon Tava indeed launched Sustainable NZ, a party aimed at rightleaning environmentally conscious voters. And Destiny Church launched a new socially conservative party . ... 10/10
Prediction:
We predicted NZ First MP Fletcher Tabuteau would be made a minister.
Outcome:
Reader, he was not . .................................... 0/10
Prediction:
We predicted that Winston Peters would lose his legal battle over the leak of his superannuation details, claim victory, and the Government will have to pick up the tab for expenses of those accused.
Outcome:
The final decision is yet to be released, but thus far the legal costs for the former National ministers has been covered by the taxpayer. Peters appears to have conceded that neither Anne Tolley nor Paula Bennett leaked the super details, however – so we’ll give ourselves ............................................... 4/10.
Prediction:
We said teachers would call off a February strike but the Government would be plagued by industrial action.
Outcome:
There was no strike in February and a ‘‘mega-strike’’ in May – but it’s not quite fair to say the Government has been plagued by industrial action: ............... 5/10
Final tally: .......................... 99/200
This is not our worst result – that was in 2018, when we received 90. But it isn’t quite a passing mark either, and it’s a lot lower than our best score, 140 in 2014. Tune in tomorrow for our predictions for next year.