What’s Putin up to now?
The surprise shake-up in the Russian Government could be all about Putin’s long-term grip on power.
The resignation of Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has caught analysts, as well as many Russians, by surprise. President Vladimir Putin promptly offered the post to Mikhail Mishustin, head of the Russian tax service. Here are some questions raised by the move.
Who is Mikhail Mishustin?
Mishustin does not appear to have played a high-profile role in Russian politics, especially in fields dominated by Putin, such as foreign policy. The 53-year-old has held several positions in various agencies related to taxes, duties and real estate. He has been in charge of the federal tax service since 2010.
What does the shake-up mean?
In most countries, the resignation of a prime minister would suggest a leadership crisis. But in Russia, it might well be the result of careful planning, directed by Putin.
The key question is what Russia’s future leadership will look like. Medvedev’s resignation was announced on the same day as sweeping constitutional changes proposed by Putin. Under these, more power would be transferred to parliament, which would be charged with selecting a prime minister – a task that currently falls to the president.
If approved, the changes would also result in the strengthening of an advisory body to the president.
Medvedev has helped to preserve Putin’s power before. When he swapped places with Putin in 2008 and became Putin’s successor as president, he was predominantly seen as a caretaker. Among his key missions, it was widely assumed, was to allow Putin to again become president after the end of his prime ministerial term.
But Putin has appeared to disagree with Medvedev at times, fuelling speculation about a growing rift between the two.
What are Putin’s possible options after 2024?
If the government shake-up was indeed directed by Putin, it may suggest that the latest moves were taken to preserve his power beyond 2024, when his term is set to end – one way or another.
Putin has said that presidential terms should be limited to two. Even though some of his critics have maintained that he may try to stay on as president regardless, others have viewed the latest announcement as setting the stage for a more sophisticated transfer of power.
Firstly, the proposals announced may erode the influence of Putin’s successor as president, as they would shift power toward parliament and the prime ministers.
Secondly, Medvedev’s move to become deputy chairman of
the powerful Russian Security Council could be an experiment with relevance to Putin’s future after his own term expires.
Some have speculated Putin could mimic what happened in Kazakhstan, where Nursultan Nazarbayev became chairman of his country’s Security Council for life after stepping down as president last year.
Alternatively, he may be trying to carve out an unelected role as a kind of supreme leader, comparable with the role of Ayatollah Khamenei in Iran, or Xi Jinping in China.
Who are Putin’s likely successors?
Some had thought Putin would trial potential future presidents in the role of prime minister. But Mishustin was until now an obscure civil servant.
Back in 1999, so was Putin, so Mishustin should not be entirely ruled out. But the bookies’ favourites, Sergei Sobyanin, the competent but not especially charismatic mayor of Moscow, and Sergei Shoigu, the popular defence minister, remain very much in the running for the Kremlin.
‘‘This is an exercise in keeping options open,’’ says Sam Greene, the head of the Russia Institute at King’s College London. ‘‘It doesn’t matter who is president, because maybe the presidency won’t matter.’’ – Washington Post/Telegraph Group
‘‘This is an exercise in keeping options open. It doesn’t matter who is president, because maybe the presidency won’t matter.’’
Sam Greene, King’s College London