Bill Gates warns of pandemic
‘‘If it (2019-nCoV) spreads in areas like Sub-Saharan Africa, it could be very, very dramatic – potentially a very bad situation.’’
Bill Gates
Bill Gates has warned that the coronavirus in Africa could overwhelm health services and trigger a pandemic resulting in 10 million deaths.
The Microsoft founder and global health pioneer was speaking at a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Seattle just hours before the first case in Africa was confirmed, in Cairo, Egypt.
There are fears the disease could spread to Sub-Saharan Africa and spark an uncontrollable outbreak, with health services unable to cope.
Gates said: ‘‘We’ve always known the potential for a naturally caused, or intentionally caused, pandemic is one of the few things that could disrupt health systems and economies and cause more than 10 million deaths.
‘‘If it spreads in areas like SubSaharan Africa, it could be very, very dramatic – potentially a very bad situation.’’ He claimed there had been a huge underinvestment in antivirals and called on China to ‘‘step-up’’ and provide better drugs. He said coronavirus was worrying because of the speed it could spread.
‘‘Ebola is terrible, but it’s not like a lightning flu,’’ he said, ‘‘and we have no immunity.’’
‘‘If this gets into Africa, will those health systems be overwhelmed? Most of the excess deaths [from Ebola] were caused because the health service shut down. It’s not just the direct effect, it’s also the panic, the overload.’’
British experts said it was not surprising the disease had reached Egypt, as Cairo was a world hub and had many Chinese visitors.
The patient in Africa, a 33-year-old Chinese worker returning to the country, was isolated quickly.
The 17 people with whom he had been in contact all tested negative, but scientists fear the continent’s limited health services may mean it has gone undetected elsewhere.
Dr Andrew Freedman, of Cardiff university, said: ‘‘It was inevitable the virus would spread to Africa. There may well already be cases in other African countries that have evaded detection.’’
But Dr Michael Head, from Southampton university said: ‘‘It is reassuring there has been rapid contact tracing and they have tested negative. This might be an isolated case with minimal transmission.’’Gates’ warning came as China reported yesterday a drop in new virus cases for the third straight day, as it became apparent that the country’s leadership was aware of the potential gravity of the situation
well before the alarm was sounded.
There are 2009 new cases in mainland China, bringing its total number of confirmed cases to 68,500, according to the country’s National Health Commission.
The fatality rate remained stable with 142 new deaths. The death toll in mainland China from COVID-19, a disease stemming from a new form of coronavirus, now stands at 1,665.
The outbreak began in December in Wuhan, capital of the central Chinese province of Hubei.
It has since spread to more than 24 countries and prompted sweeping prevention measures from the Chinese government, including a lockdown of cities with a combined population of more than 60 million.
The UN health agency’s director-general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, urged governments to step up their efforts to prepare for the virus, saying ‘‘it’s impossible to predict which direction this epidemic will take.’’
Tedros told a gathering of international foreign and security policy leaders in Germany on Saturday that WHO is encouraged there has not yet been widespread transmission outside China and that ‘‘the steps China has taken to contain the outbreak at its source appear to have bought the world time.’’
‘‘We’re encouraged that an international team of experts is now on the ground working closely with Chinese counterparts to understand the outbreak,’’ Tedros told the Munich Security Conference.
– Telegraph Group/AP