Climate is not a domestic issue
Jacinda Ardern is in for some whiplash this week. After visiting Fiji, where villages are literally relocating due to climate change, she will arrive in Australia, where even the idea of an emissions reductions target is met with open hostility by the government.
Fijian Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama was clearly keen for Ardern to take a bit of a message to Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, with whom he has clashed over climate in the past.
His speech after their bilateral meeting mentioned the fact that he was sure New Zealand would join Fiji in ‘‘demanding’’ that other countries do their part in the fight against climate change – especially our ‘‘neighbours’’.
Bainimarama’s office even bolded the ‘‘demanded’’ part in its readout of his remarks, just to make sure the press understood his point. (He later said he had found a ‘‘surprising ally in the New Zealand media’’ on climate – an interesting take from a man who has locked up a Kiwi journalist before.)
But Ardern has made clear repeatedly that climate change will not be on the agenda with Morrison tomorrow, as she doesn’t think ‘‘wagging her finger’’ is the right way to get a country to change its domestic policies. Instead she thinks international forums are the place – though none of these over the past four decades has meaningfully halted emissions growth.
To her credit, Ardern worked against Australia to try and make the climate statement bolder at the last meeting of the Pacific Island Forum in Tuvalu. She’s announcing some new money for climate projects in Fiji. And as she said, it’s not exactly as if Morrison doesn’t know New Zealand’s views on climate.
She is probably right that chiding Australia for failing to get its house in order on climate change might be a bit impolitic, and probably wouldn’t work.
It would earn her another lashing from the Right-leaning press in Australia, who could accurately point out that New Zealand’s emissions are still on the rise and the Government seems to have ditched plans to properly attack either transport or agricultural emissions, the two real areas of opportunity for emissions reduction here.
It would also insert her into a raging domestic debate within Australia, allying her with the Opposition, which is currently pushing for a zero emission target for 2050.
There is a key difference in the trans-Tasman hypocrisies on emissions. While New Zealand retains emissions-intensive industries, it does not export a huge amount of fossil fuels. Australia does.
Indeed, just the coal it exports in a typical year cause about 12.5 times the emissions of our entire economy. Some estimates suggest Australia’s domestic and export emissions make up about 5 per cent of the global total. That’s quite a bit for a country with just 0.3 per cent of the global population. (Most international and national climate targets don’t take into account exported fossil fuels, so you can technically reach a zero carbon target while fuelling the rest of the world’s emissions.)
That kind of problem demands something of a song and dance from a leader who says climate change is her generation’s nuclear-free issue.
Because climate change is simply not a domestic issue. This isn’t like Ardern popping in to lecture Morrison about his housing policy. The actions of Australia will directly harm New Zealand, the Pacific, and the world.
Why us? Well, because through all the issues in our relationship right now we are still Australia’s closest friend, other than perhaps the United States, which has abdicated a leadership role on this issue.
When New Zealand broke with other nations and invited a rugby team from an apartheid regime to tour our country, Australia’s Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser was unafraid to call us out directly.
It didn’t stop the tour, but it helped hit home to Kiwis just how much of an outlier we were on apartheid.
Instead, Ardern will be bringing up the deportation of Kiwi criminals with Morrison. This is another issue where she is unlikely to get much give. There is simply not much political advantage for Morrison to be found in agreeing to keep on technically foreign citizens who commit crimes in your country, even if they’ve lived in Australia since the age of 2.
Ardern will be aware of this, but will know standing up to Australia on this issue plays well back home, and might even get some coverage in Aussie media. Fair enough.
But if the Government is serious about emissions peaking this year, and then dropping, the differences between our two countries on this issue are going to widen significantly. And as climate change becomes the predominant issue of the next decade, that difference is going to spill out into other parts of the relationship. At some point, some prime minister is going to have to tell Australia to clean up its act.
It will have a lot more impact coming from a democratically elected New Zealander than a guy installed in a coup.
This isn’t like Ardern popping in to lecture Morrison about his housing policy. The actions of Australia will directly harm New Zealand, the Pacific, and the world.