Are we a team of 30 million?

Tourism operators and politicians are looking ahead to a trans-Tasman travel bubble, writes Philip Matthews.

‘‘The beauty of our shared travel markets is our visitors are generally repeat visitors ...’’

Academics’ analysis of a trans-Tasman bubble

Are we due a trip to Tasmania? Not now, of course, but soon. Australia’s oftenoverlooked island state was in the news this past week as the image of a trans-Tasman travel bubble expanded in the New Zealand imagination.

Sydney, Melbourne, the Gold Coast? We’ve done that. It must be time for Tassie. Amazing food, beautiful scenery, some great art, interesting colonial history.

This is not a travel story, but we reached out to Tourism Tasmania, whose CEO John Fitzgerald told us that ‘‘Tasmania welcomes 20,000 visitors from New Zealand every year and we would love to welcome more’’, and that ‘‘Tasmania has a lot to offer our Kiwi cousins and has bucketloads of character that no other destination in Australia offers’’.

Once the Covid-19 crisis cools down, Fitzgerald is keen to see direct flights from New Zealand.

Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters has been thinking the same thing, telling RNZ it’s ‘‘seriously exciting’’ that Tasmanian Premier Peter Gutwein is hoping to revive the direct flights that stopped in the 1990s.

The speculative travel bubble started to become real when Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern joined a video conference with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and state and territory premiers. They agreed a safe travel zone was a goal, but were hazy on when this might happen.

The travel zone would see the New Zealand bubble extend to Australia. A team of 5 million could become a team of 30m. Enforced quarantines would end, although there would continue to be some restrictions.

The conference was still going when Ardern pulled out to address her daily Covid-19 briefing, where questions about the plan were inevitably asked. When Morrison emerged, his focus was on the domestic economy and the ‘‘need to get 1m Australians back to work’’.

The appeal is obvious on this side. Tourism has taken a big hit in both countries, but New Zealand is worse off. It’s no surprise that commentators in Australia see New Zealand as being the more enthusiastic partner in the discussions.

Australia is the leading source of tourists to New Zealand, ahead of China and the US. But China sends more tourists to Australia than New Zealand does. We sent 1.2m people to Australia last year; they sent 1.6m over here.

‘‘Opening up to a market of an additional 25m may make a crucial difference for an industry that currently anticipates job losses of 50 per cent,’’ says Dr Julia Albrecht of Otago University’s tourism department.

From Peters’ perspective, it makes sense to start with a smaller, isolated state ‘‘as a demonstration to the remainder of Australia that it can work’’. Tasmania would be the warm-up before the mainland, where interstate borders are closed.

Tourism experts such as Canterbury University’s Professor C Michael Hall say trans-Tasman travel could open up once both countries reach the equivalent of level 2, arguably as early as this month. ‘‘Don’t expect this to happen in a couple of weeks’ time,’’ Ardern warned last week. In Australia, there has been talk of having interstate travel fully open in time for the July school holidays.

And as Morrison has said, if you can fly from Melbourne to Cairns, then why not Melbourne to Auckland or Christchurch?

A late June or early July timeframe would fit with other hints. New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian said last week: ‘‘I suspect by the end of June, life will feel much more normal than it does now.’’ Other experts say August.

By Saturday, there had been

6927 confirmed Covid-19 cases and 97 deaths in Australia. The vast majority were acquired overseas or were contacts of confirmed cases, but 732 cases, or

10.6 per cent, could not be linked to local cases or were under investigation.

Given the population sizes, Australia’s numbers are close to ours. And despite the hype, their lockdown rules have not been very different. Most states limited gatherings to just two people, although larger numbers were allowed in South Australia and the Northern Territory.

New South Wales allowed non-essential shopping to continue, as long as every shopper kept 4 metres apart. In parallel to level 2 in New Zealand, the rules have started to relax, but still vary state by state.

Abody called the Australia New Zealand Leadership Forum has formed a Trans-Tasman Safe Border Group to figure out the guidelines and safe practices for a travel bubble. There has to be agreement on basic health procedures. ‘‘How we are testing for, identifying, and isolating cases and contacts,’’ as directorgeneral of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield says.

Reports from Australia have fleshed out more detail, saying airports may need to cover health checks and temperature screenings. Tourists may need to produce a certificate showing they are virus-free.

They might be traced during their visit, but interest in the much-hyped contact tracing app seems to be fading on this side of the Tasman. As Ardern said, ‘‘I don’t wish for us to rely on that being the answer, because it never will be.’’

The thinking has started in earnest. In an analysis by Australian tourism academic Freya Higgins-Desbiolles and University of Otago tourism professor James Higham, the idea made sense.

‘‘The beauty of our shared travel markets is our visitors are generally repeat visitors who head to diverse regions,’’ they wrote. ‘‘Because more than 70 per cent of Australians book selfdrive holidays, for example, their spending spreads more widely . . . Australians seek skiing and adventure in Queenstown, wine in Martinborough or Waiheke Island.

‘‘They also support Australian sports teams competing in Auckland, Wellington and Dunedin. In reverse, lots of Kiwis head to the Gold Coast but also visit the Hunter Valley for wine or Melbourne, Sydney or Brisbane for sports events.’’

Other experts note that a trans-Tasman bubble would have positive effects beyond tourism. More than 18,000 Australian businesses trade with New Zealand, and academics Hongzhi Gao and Monica Ren think a bubble might help both countries reduce their economic dependence on China.

Masks and messages

University of Otago public health professor Michael Baker has become one of the familiar faces of the pandemic. He was one of the few calling for a lockdown in March, which was a touch-and-go call until political will swung behind the idea.

He is slowly returning to his his day job, after what he calls the most intense time of his working life. ‘‘Like a lot of us who are helping out, none of us had this in our job description,’’ he says.

We spoke by phone on the same day that Ardern described what level 2 will look like. We are on the downward slope of Mt Everest, as she said, having knocked the Covid bastard off. It seems odd to be talking about a finish line so soon.

Looking back, one of the advantages of going to a full lockdown, which Baker calls ‘‘a powerful but not sustainable method’’, was that it was clear and enforceable. Weaker rules rely on individual behaviour and judgment. ‘‘All the indicators are that New Zealand did adhere well to the guidelines,’’ he says.

But we should still be cautious. An outbreak can take weeks to detect and, as we start planning our haircuts, cafe visits and internal flights, we are still within the virus’ 14-day incubation period after the loosening of rules at level 3.

Does that mean talk of the trans-Tasman bubble is a little premature? ‘‘It’s good to have it as an aspirational goal, but we’re still in the acute phase . . . and we still haven’t achieved elimination, technically,’’ Baker says. ‘‘There possibly is virus still circulating, but once we’ve met a reasonable definition of elimination, then I think we can start to plan what next.

‘‘If there are quarantined

countries in the eastern hemisphere that are in a similar position to New Zealand, we can start to think about travel between those countries. It is the next logical step.’’

He wouldn’t want to put a date like early July on it, though. There are procedures to work out and terminology has to align. Both sides have to agree on what elimination of the virus means.

As Baker and colleagues Nick Wilson, Shaun Hendy and David Skegg wrote at their Public Health Expert blog, ‘‘there is currently no accepted international definition of Covid-19 elimination, and a number of options would be possible. The most clear-cut approach would be to require zero transmission within a country or region.’’

While Australia has the potential to do this, it has not adopted the goal, they write. But a report from Australia’s ‘‘group of eight’’ research universities has a possible definition, which would be no new cases linked to community transmission or unknown sources of infection over two incubation periods.

‘‘When there’s any potential for countries to start opening up borders, you’ve got to have fundamental agreement on key definitions,’’ Baker says. ‘‘It fits with how epidemiologists see the world. We tend to be very pedantic about things.’’

And of course, ‘‘everything to do with airlines is very much about risk assessment and risk management’’.

But while everyone is thinking about Australia, and with good reason, Baker is looking further afield. Differences between how Australia and New Zealand have coped with Covid19 are ‘‘pretty subtle at the international level’’, but Taiwan has done much better than both. In a country of 23m, there have been only six deaths, and it has just gone 24 days without a locally transmitted case.

Taiwan’s experience with Sars in 2003 means it was more prepared, especially when it came to the mass wearing of face masks. Baker is an advocate for masks at our own level 2, and has been surprised at how dismissive officials have been. Without masks, ‘‘we’re going back from very intense containment to virtually nothing’’.

Widespread mask-wearing is also said to be one of the reasons why Covid-19 rates are lower in eastern Europe than in the west.

Hong Kong is about to give free masks to all its residents, as it starts to relax social distancing and ease border restrictions with mainland China. Vietnam, which also borders China, has not had a single Covid-19 death.

‘‘What New Zealand has done has been effective, but it’s not particularly innovative so far,’’ Baker says. ‘‘Countries in Asia are way ahead of us in their thinking.’’

There is a good chance that, as we get our wish and the travel bubble expands to take in Australia, the Pacific and some countries in Asia, mask-wearing may be forced upon reluctant New Zealanders anyway.

‘‘You can guarantee people will want to see masks in all the terminals and possibly during flights. It is a way to allow people to sit closer together.’’