Nats in it for a win
Principles be damned, this race is about who is the best leader to beat Labour
This is not about principle, it is about who can win. The National Party leadership is set to be settled at noon tomorrow after Simon Bridges brought forward the party’s caucus meeting, catching the would-be plotters on the hop and hoping to resolve the party leadership issue quickly.
It is about who can fulfil National’s historical purpose for being: to keep Labour off the Treasury benches.
After a harried day on the phones, Bay of Plenty MP Todd Muller – who most Kiwis probably couldn’t pick out of a line-up, let alone name – declared his hand. He wrote to National president Peter Goodfellow and Bridges yesterday to confirm his challenge, and then to the rest of his caucus.
His message to wavering MPs and the public was simple: National can’t win under Bridges. Not only that, but that a re-elected Labour Party would be ‘‘catastrophic for two generations’’.
‘‘Our communities and our economy are at stake. It is essential National wins this election. I share the view of a majority of colleagues that this is not possible under the current leadership,’’ Muller wrote.
Yet as it stood late yesterday, the Bridges forces were confident of their numbers, which importantly, includes a lot of the heavyweights on the party’s front bench and within the party, including shadow Cabinet members Todd McClay, Paul Goldsmith, Michael Woodhouse, Judith Collins, Mark Mitchell, and Brett Hudson. Between them they cover the portfolios of finance, trade, economic development, defence, justice, health, police.
But team Muller is also confident it has the numbers, especially as at least 16 current MPs are facing unemployment if the numbers from Monday night’s poll are replicated on election night. Muller is calling or meeting with every MP he can.
Collins saying she would not
call a no-confidence vote is particularly significant, as she was a presumptive rival to both Bridges and Muller. Collins could of course still run if a vote on the leadership is called but while she has huge support within the grassroots, her backing within caucus is not as strong.
Bridges’ leadership has been under pressure since a Newshub/Reid Research poll put the National Party’s support at 30.6 per cent compared to Labour’s stratospheric ratings of over 56 per cent. Another poll from One News/Colmar Brunton will set the scene when it is released tonight.
The National Party is convinced that when the Government’s wage subsidies, well, subside, that high levels of unemployment and potentially widespread pay cuts will focus Kiwis on the economy and boost their support.
At the core of the leadership battle is whether Bridges’ personal unpopularity will act as a handbrake on the National Party selling its economic message to the New Zealand public. Brand National has a strong economic message.
Camp Bridges would prefer that this is seen as a fight between the right and left of the party, with Muller and socially liberal Kaye firmly on the left. If this framing is successful it will help Bridges greatly – National has fewer centrists in caucus than it once did.
But Camp Muller disagrees, arguing that the Muller/Kaye ticket would take the party back to some of the unity enjoyed under John Key and Bill English. Muller’s business experience and socially conservative views will be an asset for that argument.
In fact, the race is based so heavily on political expediency that key questions hang in the air. Will the party actually have different policies? Will most of the front bench stay intact, or will the Muller forces have to make big promises to junior MPs to get them over the line? And perhaps most of all: what will this mean for the election campaign that is already advanced, and that is currently chaired by Bridges’s presumptive running mate, Paula Bennett?
But both ideology – and even these more practical considerations – won’t be the main thing on National MPs’ minds ahead of tomorrow. What matters is who they think will win. Or at least, according to current polls, who will lose the least badly.