Let’s keep calm and maintain a sense of perspective
The first casualty of a botchup in a crisis like Covid-19 is a sense of perspective. This week presents an excellent example of what happens when perspective loses out to an orgy of savage criticism and calls for heads to roll.
I don’t need to relitigate all the details surrounding the two Covid19-carrying women from the UK who were allowed to leave their quarantine hotel, without testing, to travel to Wellington by car to be with grieving family. That incident was compounded by the antics of a six-strong group, allowed out of quarantine to attend the tangi of a Mongrel Mob member in Hamilton. Two of the group, aged 8 and 19, fled and three others failed to return to their Auckland hotel afterwards. Then, for a bit of light relief, we had the homeless guy who joined the queue for hotel quarantine and inexplicably was allowed a pleasant two weeks in luxury accommodation.
You can see why compassionate leave had to be cancelled altogether in the meantime.
The breaches and possible ramifications have rightly been a story of some moment in New Zealand and overseas media have delighted in taking goodie-twoshoes New Zealand, with its run of 24 consecutive days without a new case of Covid-19, down a peg. The UK Guardian’s Emma GrahamHarrison equated New Zealand with China, which has experienced a re-emergence of Covid-19 (or a variant) in Beijing. The city had enjoyed 56 consecutive days without a new case but this week reported about 30 new cases. On Thursday the authorities ordered all hotels as well as restaurants in high risk areas to shut down. Schools and universities had been closed earlier.
The reaction in New Zealand to the breaches has been colourful. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has been uncharacteristically frosty, Ombudsman Peter Boshier has been livid, former police commissioner Mike Bush professed himself ‘‘not happy’’ and somebody else important was furious. Various commentators called for sackings, resignations, a general purge of the system and even a royal commission.
It’s worth noting that, when crowds took to the streets for the Black Lives Matter protests in blatant contravention of the rules a few weeks ago, the response, including from the Government, was decidedly muted. No-one called for the sacking of the police commissioner or resignation of Ardern. This was probably a proportionate response and a similar sense of perspective is called for now.
The first point to make is that despite some doubts over the Covid-19-carrying women who travelled to Wellington, not a single new infection caused by contact with them outside quarantine has emerged. The absconders from the Mongrel Mob tangi visit have also been rounded up.
While it’s true the botch-ups threatened all the good work put in by thousands of New Zealanders and no excuses should be accepted, the alarm of the last week could turn out to be unjustified. That could change but it probably won’t.
It’s not as though the women went to a nightclub or gym and the fleeting contacts they had presented a low risk of infection. Some failings in the system have been detected but the system was never as porous as some believe.
And let’s not forget that officials dealing with compassionate exemption applications were required to apply discretion.
The importance of the discretion was highlighted when Oliver Christiansen went to the High Court in early May to challenge a Ministry of Health decision denying him permission to leave quarantine, so he could visit his dying father.
Ministry officials had failed to properly consider whether Christiansen’s application came under compassionate grounds or exceptional circumstances mentioned by the Health Act (Managed Air Arrivals) Order, Justice Tracey Walker said.
People who have discretions are inclined to make mistakes. In other words, discretions are inherently risky.
Perspective is also required when dealing with comparisons, such as the reference to China where the re-emergence of Covid-19 is very different to the incidents in New Zealand.
In Beijing, Covid-19 has reemerged in dozens of locals with the new cluster apparently due to asymptomatic carriers who had no contact with anyone from overseas or from other provinces. In New Zealand, the new cases arose in overseas travellers in quarantine.
The shouts for people like Ashley Bloomfield and David Clark to step down also lack perspective. Bloomfield, who has done a fine job for New Zealand, should not be pilloried for a couple of bad decisions by low-level officials. If someone had just applied a bit of common sense and tested the Wellington-bound women, one of whom had mild symptoms of illness, nothing would have happened.
Opening the borders a little to allow citizens to return, and to try to strike a balance between eliminating Covid-19 and minimising the damage to the economy, requires an acceptance of some risk.
The risks can be mitigated by strict protocols and adherence to them, but slip-ups will always occur. The important thing is to learn from them and ensure they don’t happen again.
In the coming weeks we will know for sure whether the breaches and the fairly loose quarantine arrangements have larger ramifications. In the meantime, let’s maintain a sense of proportion. There will be plenty of time for angry snits.
It’s not as though the women went to a nightclub or gym and the fleeting contacts they had presented a low risk of infection.